Transcript
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Welcome back to Shameless Potpourri.
欢迎回到无耻教皇党杂烩。
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I'm Joe Heschmeyer, and I've got a lot of exciting news for you.
我是 Joe Heschmeyer,我有很多令人兴奋的消息要告诉你。
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Not least of which is we're ending the season of Lent and entering the season called Triduum, the shortest season on the church's calendar.
其中尤其重要的是,我们正在结束四旬期,进入一个叫做逾越三日庆典的时期,这是教会年历上最短的一个时期。
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Fun fact, it's the three holiest days of the year.
顺便说一句,这是这一年里最神圣的三天。
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It begins with tonight, Holy Thursday of the Mass of the Lord's Supper, and it's gonna culminate in the Easter vigil.
它从今晚开始,也就是主的圣餐弥撒的圣周四,并会在复活节守夜礼达到高潮。
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But at the Easter vigil, a lot of people are going to be entering the Catholic Church this year.
不过在今年的复活节守夜礼上,会有很多人进入公教会。
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And so I wanna continue to ask a question I started to ask last year, namely, do we see the seeds or the early signs of a Catholic revival in America?
所以我想继续追问我去年开始提出的一个问题,也就是,我们是否看到了美国公教复兴的种子,或早期迹象?
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Now, when I asked that question last year, we were starting to see some pretty interesting trends.
去年我提出那个问题的时候,我们开始看到一些很有意思的趋势。
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And as we're gonna see, those trends have continued, and in fact, seem to be even improving.
而且正如我们将要看到的,那些趋势已经持续下去了,实际上看起来还在进一步改善。
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But I also wanna be cognizant of the pushback the revival narrative has gotten, and- and quite reasonably.
但我也想留意一下这种复兴叙事所受到的反驳,而且这反驳也相当合理。
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There are some people who, not just because they hate joy, because they respect, you know, facts, wanna say, Yes, there are these positive signs, but there are these negative signs as well.
有些人这样说,并不只是因为他们讨厌快乐,而是因为他们尊重事实。他们想说,是的,确实有这些积极的迹象,但同时也有这些消极的迹象。
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There are plenty of people in the young generation particularly, who are just clearly less religious than the generations before.
尤其是在年轻一代里,有很多人明显比前几代人更不重视宗教。
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So, we don't wanna paint an overly simplistic narrative.
所以,我们不想描绘一个过于简单化的叙事。
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So, I wanna identify what are the real sources of good news?
所以,我想指出真正的好消息来源是什么。
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What are the grounds upon which we can say something does seem to be happening?
我们根据什么可以说,某种变化似乎的确正在发生?
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And then, what are the limits on that?
然后,这里面的限度又是什么?
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'Cause we don't want to exaggerate that kind of story.
因为我们不想夸大这种说法。
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So, the first question to ask is just, well, are Catholic conversions really up?
所以,第一个要问的问题就是,公教皈依的人数真的增加了吗?
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And there are a lot of indications that the answer to that is yes, including looking at different dioceses' record keeping, y- year to year at the Easter vigil.
而有很多迹象表明,答案是肯定的,包括查看不同教区在复活节守夜礼每年记录的数据。
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So, this has been making the news, both in Catholic spaces and in secular spaces, because it's enough of a phenomenon that people are starting to notice.
所以,这件事已经成了新闻,不管是在公教圈子里,还是在世俗媒体里,因为这已经明显到人们开始注意到了。
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And this is true in Catholicism specifically.
而且这特别是发生在公教里面的情况。
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We're seeing evidence of this in the US and in the UK and elsewhere.
我们正在美国、英国以及其他地方看到这方面的证据。
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We also are finding broader trends of just people entering Christianity at what appears to be higher rates.
我们也看到一个更广泛的趋势,就是人们进入基督教的比率看起来更高了。
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Now, I wanna look at a couple of the Catholic-specific things, partly because it's a little easier to get Catholic data, 'cause it's gathered diocese by diocese in one place.
现在,我想看看几个公教特有的现象,部分原因是公教的数据比较容易取得一点,因为这些数据是按教区集中汇总的。
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It's still actually not that easy to find the data, but it's easier.
其实这些数据还是不那么容易找,但确实相对容易一些。
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So, the Catholic Register, uh, points out that we are seeing these trends all over the place, and they put together a list of the dioceses that were showing the biggest year-over-year spikes in converts.
所以,《公教纪事报》指出,我们到处都在看到这些趋势,他们还整理了一份名单,列出那些皈依人数同比增幅最大的教区。
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So, the number of people coming into the church in 2026 compared even to 2025, a year that was already up for a lot of places, they found places like Norwich, Connecticut, the number of people coming into the church is up 112%.
所以,2026年进入教会的人数,即使和2025年相比也是增长的,而2025年本来就已经是很多地方上升的一年。他们发现,像康涅狄格州诺里奇这样的地方,进入教会的人数增长了112%。
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Pueblo, Colorado, 105% year over year, all the way down to Springfield-Cape Girard, a 54% increase.
科罗拉多州普韦布洛同比增长了105%,再到斯普林菲尔德-开普吉拉多,也增长了54%。
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These are some pretty massive surges in the number.
这些数字的增长幅度相当惊人。
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But the question with even a term like surge or spike is, is this just a blip?
不过,即使用「激增」或「飙升」这样的词,一个问题还是会出现:这会不会只是暂时的波动?
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Are we just dealing with, you know, a small number of people so that even a little bit of a- an increase is going to be, uh, statistically significant?
我们面对的会不会只是一个本来就很小的基数,所以哪怕只是略微增加一点,从统计上看也会显得很显著?
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Well, it seems bigger than that, and this has attracted the attention of places like the New York Times.
不过,这看起来不只是那样而已,而且这已经吸引了《纽约时报》之类媒体的注意。
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They had a recent article called Roman Catholic Churches See a Surge of New Converts, and they point out that bishops are struggling to understand why this is happening.
他们最近有一篇文章,题目叫《罗马公教会看到新皈依者激增》,文章指出,主教们也在努力理解为什么会发生这种事。
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And they put some numbers with it where it's not just a percentage increase, but you can see pretty concretely that across the country, there does seem to be some pretty tremendous growth.
他们还列出了一些数字,不只是百分比的增长,而是让你能很具体地看到,全国范围内似乎确实出现了相当可观的增长。
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So, for instance, this Easter, the Archdiocese of Detroit is gonna receive 1,428 new Catholics in the church, which is the highest number in 21 years.
比如说,在今年复活节,底特律总教区将接纳1428名新的公教徒进入教会,这是21年来的最高数字。
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Galveston-Houston will have the most converts in 15 years.
加尔维斯顿-休斯敦将迎来15年来最多的皈依者。
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Diocese of Des Moines, it's gone up 51% from 265 people to 400 people just year over year.
得梅因教区的人数同比增长了51%,从265人增加到400人。
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And then they point out this is gonna be a little tricky to do, 'cause you're- you're going diocese by diocese trying to find out what the numbers are.
然后他们指出,这件事做起来会有点棘手,因为你得一个教区一个教区地去查这些数字到底是多少。
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Every diocese has their own kind of system for tracking these things, so it can be very hard to get just good reliable data.
每个教区在追踪这些事情时都有自己的一套系统,所以要拿到真正可靠的好数据会很困难。
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And I would also add that it's perfectly legitimate to say dioceses who, uh, are doing well may be more likely to wanna share their information.
而且我还要补充一点,说那些发展得不错的教区可能更愿意分享他们的数据,这样说是完全合理的。
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Also, dioceses that are doing well may also be better at record-keeping.
另外,那些发展得不错的教区,也可能本来就更擅长做记录。
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Like, it might just be a sign of a functional, competent diocese, where a diocese that can't even figure out how many people are coming into the church, that may be an indication of a deeper spiritual malaise.
比如说,这也许只是一个运作正常、能力称职的教区的表现;相反,一个连有多少人进入教会都搞不清楚的教区,这可能反而说明它有更深层的属灵萎靡。
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Either way, with those kind of caveats, what the New York Times found is that looking at two dozen dioceses, including some of the largest ones like LA and Phoenix, like, Los Angeles is the largest Catholic diocese in the country, but also looking at rural and smaller dioceses like Gallup, New Mexico, and Allentown, Pennsylvania, every one that they looked at showed a significant jump in converts.
不管怎样,把这些保留条件都算进去之后,《纽约时报》发现,在他们查看的24个教区里,包括洛杉矶和菲尼克斯这样最大的几个教区,洛杉矶是全国最大的公教教区,也包括像新墨西哥州盖洛普和宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦这样乡村和较小的教区,他们看过的每一个教区都显示出皈依人数有明显上升。
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So, this doesn't seem to be a- a regional phenomenon.
所以,这看起来不像是某个地区性的现象。
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It doesn't seem to be just a random blip.
这看起来也不像只是一次随机的短暂波动。
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Something seems to be happening.
看起来确实有什么事情正在发生。
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And one theory is, well, we've clearly lost a lot of people during COVID. Whatever growth we were experiencing was dramatically reversed and then some, and so maybe we're just kinda making up lost ground.
有一种理论是,疫情期间我们显然失去了很多人。我们原本经历的任何增长都被大幅逆转了,而且还不止如此,所以也许我们现在只是正在补回失去的部分。
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And there's probably some truth to that.
这种说法大概确实有一些道理。
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But as Elizabeth Diaz points out in- in this piece in the Times, in many cases, we're going beyond the COVID dip.
但正如 Elizabeth Diaz 在《纽约时报》的这篇文章里指出的,在很多情况下,我们已经不只是从疫情低谷中恢复而已。
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So, for instance, in Philadelphia, the new total is double what it was in 2017 in terms of new converts.
比如说,在费城,新的皈依者总数已经是2017年的两倍。
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Think about that.
你想想这一点。
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It's not just better year over year.
这不只是同比变好了而已。
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Going all the way back nine years, before COVID, before any of, you know, the more recent disruptions, we're seeing twice as many people coming into the church in Philly.
把时间往前推九年,在疫情之前,在那些更近的各种扰动之前,我们看到进入费城教会的人数已经翻了一倍。
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Similarly, in Newark, 1,701 people are gonna join this Easter compared to 1,000 in 2010.So that's clearly some evidence at a local, like, a diocesan level that something seems to be happening, and we're seeing this happen in enough places that there really does seem to be something afoot.
同样,在纽瓦克,今年复活节将有1701人加入教会,而2010年是1000人。所以这显然是在地方层面上,比如在教区层面上,表明似乎确实有事情正在发生;而且我们在足够多的地方都看到了这种情况,所以看起来确实有某种趋势正在展开。
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There is this well-documented broader national trend, not of a revival per se, but of a kind of stabilization, a healthy plateau.
全国范围内还有一个有充分记录支持的更广泛趋势,严格来说不算是复兴,而是一种稳定下来、健康持平的状态。
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When I say healthy plateau, I don't mean that this is good.
我说「健康持平」,不是说这就是好事。
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I just mean, like, the bad news isn't getting worse.
我的意思只是,坏消息至少没有变得更糟。
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So as Diaz points out, the broader Christian population in the US has been stable for s- uh, for several years after years of decline according to Pew Research, and we're gonna see some other research that h- is actually even higher quality in terms of seeing, yeah, there's a stabilization and some signs that things might be moving back in the right direction from a religious perspective.
所以,正如 Diaz 指出的,根据皮尤研究中心的数据,美国更广泛的基督徒人口在经历了多年的下降之后,过去几年已经稳定下来了。而且我们还会看到一些其他研究,就研究质量来说其实更高,也显示出,没错,确实出现了稳定的情况,并且从宗教角度来看,还有一些迹象表明事情可能正在朝着正确的方向回转。
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So just to kind of flag this, I would say we are seeing early signs of what might be an authentic revival, but it's too soon to just label it that, and I'll explain kind of why that is in a second.
所以先提醒一下,我会说,我们正在看到一些也许是真正复兴的早期迹象,但现在就直接给它贴上这个标签还太早了,我等一下会解释为什么。
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But in addition to the New York Times taking notice, The Atlantic also did.
不过,除了《纽约时报》注意到这件事之外,《大西洋月刊》也注意到了。
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Uh, they had an article called The Real Religious Renewal Happening in Gen Z by Luis Peralta, and he- they're looking at these anecdotal stories and also putting them in the broader, uh, political science context just to see, well, is this real?
他们有一篇文章,题目叫《Z世代中正在发生的真正宗教更新》,作者是 Luis Peralta。文章既看这些个别见证,也把它们放进更广泛的政治学背景里,想看看,这到底是不是真的。
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Because it's possible, you know, maybe your church is growing.
因为有这种可能,你知道,也许是你的教会正在增长。
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Maybe more people are moving into your neighborhood so your church is on fire right now.
也许只是有更多人搬进了你所在的社区,所以你的教会现在特别兴旺。
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Tons of young people are moving into the area.
有很多年轻人正在搬进这个地区。
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Tons of young people are starting to go to your church.
也有很多年轻人开始去你的教会。
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But the overall city and country and globe isn't the same story.
但整个城市、整个国家,甚至整个世界的整体情况,未必是同一个故事。
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That's a perfectly reasonable thing to ask.
提出这个问题是完全合理的。
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Here's what we find.
而我们发现的是这样。
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First, we really are seeing an increase around college campuses.
第一,我们的确看到大学校园周围出现了增长。
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So conversions do appear to be going up in big cities and in college campuses amongst young professionals, and Luis Peralta tracks down a lot of the campus data, just as we saw from the New York Times, a lot of the diocesan data.
所以,皈依人数看起来的确正在上升,不管是在大城市、大学校园,还是在年轻专业人士当中。Luis Peralta 追踪了很多校园数据,就像我们从《纽约时报》那里看到许多教区数据一样。
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So for instan- for instance, this year at Harvard, nearly 50 students plan to join the Catholic Church through the cen- through the school's Catholic Center, which is about double from last year.
比如说,今年在哈佛,接近50名学生计划通过学校的公教中心加入公教会,这大约是去年的两倍。
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Arizona State, about 50 plan to join this spring, also about double from last year.
亚利桑那州立大学今年春天大约有50人计划加入,也大约是去年的两倍。
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University of Michigan, 40 compared to 30 last year.
密歇根大学则是40人,而去年是30人。
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Now, I will just add anecdotally that in talking to chaplains at Catholic colleges, uh, particularly across the Midwest, I'm hearing these stories as well.
另外我也补充一点,就我个人听到的情况来说,在和公教大学的校园牧灵人员交谈时,尤其是在中西部各地,我也一直听到类似的故事。
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I'm hearing from a lot of people who are saying, This is the biggest OCIA class I've seen in my time as a chaplain at whatever university.
我听到很多人说,这是我在某某大学担任校园牧灵人员以来见过规模最大的 OCIA 班。
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So this doesn't appear to me to be cherry-picked data.
所以在我看来,这不像是刻意挑选出来的数据。
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Again, there are gonna be certain kind of built-in maybe, uh, biases or parameters we have to be careful of.
不过再说一次,这里面还是会有某些内在的偏差或限制条件,是我们必须小心留意的。
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For instance, when I'm speaking at a university, this is a sign that they're invested in bringing a Catholic speaker to the university.
比如说,当我在某所大学演讲的时候,这本身就说明他们愿意投入资源,把一位公教讲者请到校园里来。
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The ones that are really lukewarm maybe aren't even doing that.
那些真正冷淡的学校,也许连这一步都不会做。
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And so the fact that I'm seeing signs of life is, on the one hand, really good, because I think there really is something there.
所以,我看到这些生命迹象这件事,一方面当然非常好,因为我觉得那里确实有些真实的东西正在发生。
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On the other hand, we do want to be careful, at least at the outset, of trying to draw too much from some positive news.
但另一方面,至少在一开始的时候,我们确实也要小心,不要从一些积极消息里推导出太多结论。
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But it's not just dioceses across the country.
不过,这不只是全国各地教区的现象。
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It's not just Catholic campuses across the country.
这也不只是全国各地公教校园的现象。
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We also see in cities something similar happening as well.
我们也看到,在城市里同样有类似的事情正在发生。
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And so as Peralta says, many New York City parishes likewise expect far more converts than usual this Easter.
正如 Peralta 所说,纽约市很多堂区在今年复活节也预计会有远多于平常的皈依者。
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Nearly 90 people will formally join the Catholic Church at St. Joseph's, more than double the number from last year.
在圣约瑟堂,将有接近90人正式加入公教会,这比去年多了一倍以上。
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At the Basilica of St. Patrick's Old Cathedral in Manhattan, 70 are going to join, nearly double from last year.
在曼哈顿的圣帕特里克旧主教座堂宗座圣殿,将有70人加入,几乎是去年的两倍。
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Now, that is just part of the story, and I know that's a ton of data, but I- I give all of this data to say this isn't just somebody said, I noticed there's a lot of young people here, and I didn't notice that last year.
这还只是整个情况的一部分。我知道这是一大堆数据,但我之所以把这些数据都摆出来,就是想说明,这不只是有人说,我注意到这里有很多年轻人,而去年我没注意到。
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No, no, we actually have some numbers to put on this, and these numbers seem to be pointing in a positive direction, but they're still pretty piecemeal, pretty incomplete, and we're gonna give bigger numbers in a minute here.
不是,不是,我们其实是有一些具体数字可以说明这件事的,而且这些数字看起来的确指向一个积极的方向。不过这些数据仍然相当零散,也相当不完整,接下来我们还会看到一些更大的数字。
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But there's a qualitative dimension to this as well.
不过,这里面也有一个质的层面。
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It's not just quantitative, and this is one of the things I thought that The Atlantic article did a really good job of covering, is that, uh, conversion numbers are just one indication of spiritual engagement.
这不只是数量上的问题,而我觉得《大西洋月刊》那篇文章有一点写得特别好,就是皈依人数只是属灵投入程度的一个指标。
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You could have a ton of people join and be lukewarm and not really have their lives transformed in a meaningful way, but that isn't what appears to be happening.
你完全可能有很多人加入,但他们其实很冷淡,生命也没有真正发生有意义的改变。但看起来现在发生的并不是这种情况。
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And so they interviewed Bailey Burke, a coordinator for the Saint Mary's Student Parish in Ann Arbor, and she described seeing greater devotional interest.
所以他们采访了安娜堡圣马利亚学生堂区的一位协调员 Bailey Burke,她描述说,她看到人们对灵修的兴趣更浓了。
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And again, this tracks with a lot of the anecdotal stuff that I've seen and a lot of the anecdotal stuff that I've been hearing as well.
而且再一次,这和我亲眼看到的很多个别情况,以及我听到的很多个别情况,都是吻合的。
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So she was finding that at the University of Michigan, more of the students are signing up for overnight retreats and applying to the parish's post-grad service fellowship.
所以她发现,在密歇根大学,更多学生报名参加过夜退省,也申请加入堂区为毕业后青年设立的服务团契。
663.41-665.75
They also seem more interested in prayer.
他们看起来也对祈祷更有兴趣了。
665.77-671.97
They've recently increased the amount of Eucharistic adoration, uh, from two nights a week to four nights a week.
他们最近把圣体朝拜的时间从每周两个晚上增加到了每周四个晚上。
671.99-674.97
A small group of students have begun praying a daily rosary, et cetera.
还有一小群学生已经开始每天诵念玫瑰经,等等。
675.07-693.39
So all of this is to say you've got all these scattered data points that are not very well organized that do kind of look like there's the seeds of a revival going on, and a lot of people have been quick to go ahead and just declare it a revival, including the president of the United States.
所以这一切都是在说明,你会看到这些分散的数据点,它们组织得并不太好,但看起来的确像是有某种复兴的种子正在出现。也有很多人很快就直接把这称为一次复兴了,其中甚至包括美国总统。
693.91-707.43
I'm very proud to say that during my time in office, both the first four years and in particular this last year, there has been a tremendous renewal in religion, faith, Christianity and belief in God.
我非常自豪地说,在我任内,不管是最初四年,还是尤其在过去这一年里,宗教、信仰、基督教以及对神的信念,都出现了巨大的更新。
707.77-713.95
But political scientists like Ryan Birch have pushed back on this, and they've said, basically, Hold your horses.
但像 Ryan Birch 这样的政治学者对此提出了反驳。他们基本上是在说,先别急。
714.30-719.95
You're making too much of too little, and the data doesn't really support the broad kind of revival narrative.
你是从太少的东西里解读出了太多结论,而数据其实并不真正支持那种大范围的复兴叙事。
719.99-724.10
And so I want to engage with this directly, because I think Birch is right about a lot of this .
所以我想直接回应这一点,因为我觉得 Birch 在这方面很多地方说得是对的。
724.20-727.84
but it may be a little more optimistic than the picture he's painted.
不过,实际情况也许会比他描绘的图景稍微更乐观一点。
727.90-730.02
Now, if you're not familiar, he is a political scientist.
如果你不熟悉他的话,他是一位政治学者。
730.04-736.09
He was also, until, I believe, 2024, the pastor of a Baptist church, and that church eventually closed.
而且据我所知,一直到2024年为止,他还是一间浸信会教会的牧师,不过那间教会后来关闭了。
736.56-748.31
So, he's done a lot of good work on this and is coming at this from something of the perspective of a religious insider who's also wanting to just be as fair as he can be and, in his terms, just calling the balls and strikes.
所以,他在这方面做了很多很好的研究,而且他的切入角度有点像一个宗教圈里的人,同时也想尽可能保持公正。用他自己的话说,就是如实判定好球坏球。
748.38-755.24
So, if you're familiar with the work of Stephen Bullivant in the UK, Ryan Burge is kind of the American Stephen Bullivant in some ways.
所以,如果你熟悉英国的 Stephen Bullivant 的研究,那 Ryan Burge 在某种意义上就有点像美国版的 Stephen Bullivant。
755.64-762.84
And so, a way to pose the question that he presents is, are we looking at a revival or just a plateau?
所以,用他提出问题的方式来说,我们看到的到底是一场复兴,还是只是一个持平期?
763.30-770.48
Because his argument is the young generation is clearly less religious than, say, the oldest generations.
因为他的论点是,年轻一代显然没有最年长的那几代人那么有宗教性。
771.86-784.83
So, are we actually seeing this resurgence of, like, a really religious, uh, young generation, or are we just seeing that the religious hemorrhaging that we've been seeing for decades has flat-lined?
所以,我们看到的到底真的是一个非常有宗教热情的年轻一代正在重新兴起,还是说,我们几十年来看到的那种宗教性大出血,现在只是暂时止住了?
785.06-788.70
And so, things are just not getting worse at a faster rate.
也就是说,情况只是没有继续更快地恶化而已。
788.88-797.89
Here's how he kind of presents the argument against a religious revival, and then we'll look at some more data, including from Ryan Burge himself, to sort of complicate the picture.
下面是他大致怎样提出反对宗教复兴这个说法的论证。然后我们还会看看更多数据,包括 Ryan Burge 本人提供的数据,好让这个图景变得更完整一些。
798.28-806.14
There is some data that says that at least the, the vibes around Christianity have increased, but numerically speaking, in terms of revival, that's not true.
有一些数据表明,至少围绕基督教的整体氛围是有所上升的,但如果从数字上说,把它叫作复兴,那并不成立。
806.92-822.77
Um, the share of Americans who are Christians, um, declined from 90% in the 1970s to about 63% now, and the share of the nons have got- risen from 5% to about 28, 29, 30% in the last couple, you know, since 1972 to 2020.
美国人当中自认是基督徒的比例,从1970年代的90%下降到了现在大约63%。而没有宗教信仰的人所占的比例,则从5%上升到了大约28、29、30%,也就是从1972年到2020年这段时间里。
823.14-828.78
What you're seeing, though, in the data is a pause in the decline of Christianity and a pause in the rise of the nons.
不过,你从数据里看到的是,基督教的下降暂时停住了,而没有宗教信仰者的上升也暂时停住了。
829.42-836.30
A lo- you know, since COVID, we've really sort of had a, a stasis, a, a plateau, a, a waiting period.
你知道,自从新冠疫情以来,我们基本上进入了一种停滞状态,一个持平期,一个等待期。
836.60-837.56
But that's not a revival.
但那不是复兴。
837.90-850.50
You know, a revival would be a significant increase in the share of Americans who identify as Christians or go to church on a regular basis or religious importance or a significant decline in atheists or agnostics, and we've seen none of those things.
你知道,所谓复兴,应该是美国人当中自认是基督徒的比例明显上升,或者定期去教会的人明显增加,或者宗教在生活中的重要性明显提高,或者无神论者和不可知论者显著减少。而这些情况我们一个都没有看到。
850.51-852.50
So, I think there's two things to recognize at the outset.
所以,我认为一开始有两点需要先认清。
852.67-866.80
First, whether we're seeing a plateau or a revival, either of those is better news than what had been the kind of popular and, and accurate , uh, news, which was people were getting less and less religious.
第一,不管我们看到的是持平还是复兴,这两种情况都比之前那种既普遍又准确的消息要好,而之前的消息就是,人们变得越来越不重视宗教。
866.86-881.66
So, whether they're just plateauing and they're not getting worse, they're just kind of staying the same level, or whether they're actually starting to get more religious again, either of those is better news than what we would have been getting as news, say, four, five, six years ago.
所以,不管他们只是持平,没有继续恶化,只是大致维持在同一个水平上,还是他们其实真的又开始变得更有宗教性了,这两种情况都比我们在四五六年前会听到的消息要好。
882.56-893.48
The other thing to notice, though, is that in asking if we're seeing a revival, it can be very tricky to assess that quantitatively, and I'll explain why.
不过,第二点要注意的是,当我们问自己是否正在看到一场复兴时,要从数量上去评估这件事会非常棘手,我来解释为什么。
893.80-900.30
Because if you notice, when Ryan's talking, he's comparing the data from the 1970s to now.
因为如果你注意的话,Ryan 在讲话的时候,是拿1970年代的数据和现在来比较。
900.42-902.86
So, here's why that's tricky.
所以,这里面棘手的地方就在这里。
902.92-909.42
I'm recording this in the middle of the day on Wednesday, and so if you said, Is the weather getting warmer?
我是在周三中午录这段内容的,所以如果你问,天气是不是正在变暖?
909.92-911.82
Literally, it is.
从字面上说,是的。
911.94-913.14
It was cooler this morning.
今天早上更凉。
913.60-914.62
It's the middle of the day now.
现在已经是中午了。
914.98-916.12
It's getting warmer and warmer.
天气正在越来越暖。
916.46-919.94
On the other hand, it is cooler today than it was yesterday.
但另一方面,今天又确实比昨天更凉。
920.02-922.32
Quite a bit cooler today than it was yesterday.
而且今天比昨天凉了不少。
922.54-924.92
So, if you said, Well, is the weather up or down?
所以,如果你问,那天气到底是在升还是在降?
925.62-926.44
E- e- both.
两者都是。
926.62-929.68
It just depends what is your point that you're comparing it to.
这只取决于你拿什么作为比较的基准。
930.00-934.58
So, if you say, Do Americans seem to be more religious now than they were two years ago?
所以,如果你问,美国人现在看起来是不是比两年前更有宗教性?
935.04-936.84
there's some science that the answer to that is yes.
那确实有一些研究表明,答案是肯定的。
937.12-940.80
Very clear signs that we're seeing in big sets of data.
我们在大型数据集中看到了非常清楚的迹象。
941.08-948.68
But if you say, Is the number of Americans, uh, that are religious greater than it was in 1995 or 1955?
但如果你问,美国有宗教信仰的人数是不是比1995年或1955年更多?
948.94-950.46
Clearly not.
那显然不是。
950.52-963.78
So, those two stories can both be true, that people do seem to be getting more religious than they were a couple years ago, but it hasn't completely reversed all of the losses we've been seeing for decades.
所以,这两个说法可以同时都是真的。人们看起来的确比几年前更有宗教性了,但这还没有完全扭转我们几十年来一直看到的所有流失。
964.24-969.36
So, we wanna be fair, we wanna be honest about both halves of that story.
所以,我们要公平,也要诚实地面对这个故事的两个方面。
970.38-980.10
So, Ryan has told the story of a plateau, and this story of a plateau was one of the things that actually first drew my attention to the fact that there might be a reversal.
所以,Ryan 讲的是一个持平的故事,而这个持平的说法,恰恰是最早让我注意到也许正在出现反转的原因之一。
980.16-982.02
That is to say, a revival.
也就是说,一场复兴。
982.08-991.78
Uh, he noticed this back in 2024, that the number of Americans who labeled themselves as having no religious affiliation, the so-called nons, had hit a ceiling.
他在2024年就注意到,美国那些自称没有宗教归属的人,也就是所谓的无宗教归属者,这个数字已经碰到了天花板。
991.80-998.78
They'd been going up and up and up pretty consistently, and then a couple years ago, it just stopped going up.
这个数字一直都在相当稳定地持续上升,但到了几年前,它突然就不再上升了。
999.36-1024.56
Well, now Ryan has come out, uh, just a couple days ago with new information based on the most recent set of data from what's called the Cooperative Election Study, and which is a massive data set, I'll, I'll get into this in a minute, that has found pretty clearly for now the third year in a row that the number of people with no religious affiliation hasn't just plateaued, it's actually clearly going down.
而现在,就在几天前,Ryan 又公布了新的信息,这些信息是根据一个叫「合作选举研究」的最新一组数据得出的。这是一个规模非常庞大的数据集,我等一下会讲到。这个数据现在已经相当清楚地显示,连续第三年,没有宗教归属的人数不只是持平,而是明显在下降。
1024.94-1027.46
And he's forthright about this.
而且他对此讲得很坦率。
1027.70-1044.34
So, he shows on this graph that when you compare the number of people who describe themselves as having no religious affiliation, the numbers went from 36.2% of Americans said that they were either atheist, agnostic, or nothing in particular in 2022.
所以,他在这张图上显示,当你比较那些自称没有宗教归属的人数时,2022年有36.2%的美国人说自己是无神论者、不可知论者,或者没有特别归属。
1044.38-1055.19
That number then shrank a little bit to 35.6% and then shrank faster to 34.1% and then shrank faster to 31.8%.
这个数字随后略微下降到35.6%,然后又更快下降到34.1%,接着再更快下降到31.8%。
1055.67-1059.68
And at this point, it doesn't appear to be k- some kind of fluke in the data.
到了这个地步,这看起来已经不像是什么数据上的偶然波动了。
1059.78-1068.66
As Ryan points out, this is statistically significant shifts, and the CES, the Cooperative Election Study, is a pretty massive study.
正如 Ryan 指出的,这是在统计上具有显著性的变化。而 CES,也就是合作选举研究,是一个规模相当庞大的研究。
1068.74-1075.32
It's quite a bit larger than the General Social Survey, which is another big social survey that happens.
它比另一个大型社会调查,也就是综合社会调查,还要大得多。
1075.40-1079.72
Uh, du- during election years, they have 60,000 or more respondents, which is just massive.
在选举年份,他们会有60000名甚至更多受访者,这个规模非常惊人。
1079.76-1084.96
They usually are focused on political science stuff, so that's why they do more, uh, during election years.
他们通常主要关注政治学方面的议题,所以这也是为什么他们会在选举年份做得更多。
1085.07-1091.28
But even in off years, they're above 15,000 respondents, so this is a very large data set.
但即使在非选举年份,受访者人数也会超过15000人,所以这是一个非常大的数据集。
1091.62-1100.10
So, when it's showing this level of drop year over year-That's worth paying attention to.
所以,当它显示出这种同比下降的幅度时,这就很值得注意了。
1100.60-1106.08
And if you look at the broader, uh, trend Remember, this is kind of that point I was making earlier about the weather.
如果你看更大的趋势,记住,这有点像我刚才说的天气那个例子。
1106.09-1107.64
How far back do you look?
你到底往回看多远?
1107.72-1117.92
If you're looking from 1972 to 2024, you can see the number of people with no religious affiliation in the US skyrockets from 5.5%.
如果你从1972年看到2024年,你会看到美国没有宗教归属的人数比例,从5.5%一路飙升。
1118.28-1131.04
It goes up slowly for a while, 6.7% in the early '90s, and then it just shoots up in a pretty much unbroken line throughout the '90s and the 2000s and the 2010s, and it caps at about 28%.
它先是缓慢上升了一段时间,在90年代初达到6.7%,然后在整个90年代、2000年代和2010年代几乎一路不停地急速上升,最高达到大约28%。
1131.52-1133.62
And now, we're seeing it drop again.
而现在,我们又看到它开始下降了。
1133.84-1141.60
Now, it's still much higher than it was 10, 15, 20 years ago, but it's also clearly going down.
当然,它还是远高于10年、15年、20年前的水平,但它也确实正在明显下降。
1141.64-1143.98
Like, those things are both true.
这两件事都是真的。
1144.50-1149.37
Now, having no religious affiliation, there -- as Ryan points out, there's three groups.
现在,说到没有宗教归属的人,正如 Ryan 指出的,这里面有三类。
1149.46-1161.92
You have atheists, you have agnostics, and you have nones, just people who they're not atheists, they're not agnostics, they just don't have a particular affiliation, and we're seeing all of those groups apparently on the decline.
有无神论者,有不可知论者,还有无宗教归属者,也就是那些既不是无神论者,也不是不可知论者,只是没有特定归属的人。而我们现在看到,这三类人似乎都在下降。
1162.68-1168.18
Atheists were consistently between 6 to 7% of the sample from 2015 to 2024.
从2015年到2024年,无神论者在样本中的比例一直稳定在6%到7%之间。
1168.22-1169.12
That's a long time.
这已经是很长一段时间了。
1169.54-1173.08
Now, the atheist numbers had kind of peaked in 2015.
无神论者的人数大致在2015年达到了顶点。
1173.12-1175.24
They didn't go markedly up.
之后并没有明显继续上升。
1175.26-1176.58
They just sort of had flat-lined.
它只是大致持平了。
1177.02-1186.46
Diagnostics are, in the same time period, again about a decade, were consistently 5 to 6%. Now, we're seeing it go down.
不可知论者在同一时期,也就是大约这十年里,比例一直稳定在5%到6%之间。现在,我们看到它开始下降了。
1186.50-1196.36
Now, it's about 5% and 5%. So together, do the math here, about 10% of Americans are atheist and agnostic put together.
现在,这两个数字大约都是5%。所以加起来算一算,大约有10%的美国人是无神论者或不可知论者。
1196.60-1202.98
But they'd been 13% of the sample and 12% of the sample in the last two years.
但在前两年,这个合计比例分别是样本中的13%和12%。
1203.06-1205.06
This is a pretty steep decline.
这是一个相当明显的下降。
1205.12-1208.24
I mean, that is a large drop.
我的意思是,这确实是一个很大的下降。
1208.70-1212.62
Some of that, again, you know, you can say, Well, maybe the numbers are, are not exact.
当然,你也可以说,也许这些数字并不是绝对精确的。
1212.88-1217.90
Fine, but this is a huge data set that we're dealing with, showing what seems to be a very clear drop.
好,这么说也行,但我们面对的是一个非常庞大的数据集,而它显示出的下降看起来是非常清楚的。
1217.92-1225.36
So, that's atheists and agnostics, but again, a lot of the nones aren't atheists or agnostics, they're just nothing in particular.
所以,这是无神论者和不可知论者的情况。不过再说一次,很多无宗教归属者其实并不是无神论者或不可知论者,他们只是没有特别归属。
1225.47-1227.78
They had actually risen during that decade.
而这类人在那十年里其实是上升了的。
1227.93-1240.14
So, while atheism and agnosticism has flat-lined, just a general vague irreligiosity had gone up from 20 to 24%, but it's also dropping back.
所以,虽然无神论和不可知论一直处于持平状态,但那种笼统而模糊的不信教倾向却从20%上升到了24%,不过现在它也正在回落。
1240.20-1246.22
And so now, it's down to 21% in 2024, and 2020- 21% in 2025 as well.
所以现在,这个数字在2024年降到了21%,而在2025年也同样是21%。
1246.26-1249.82
So, it's actually lower now than it was in 2019.
所以,它现在实际上比2019年还要低。
1250.28-1258.18
So, in all three groups of irreligious people, we're seeing the numbers are actually going down.
所以,在这三类不信教人群当中,我们看到数字实际上都在下降。
1259.08-1262.08
So, that is good news for religion in general.
所以,这对宗教整体来说是个好消息。
1262.18-1276.10
That's also good news for Christianity in particular, because we're seeing some slight gains, and even admittedly slight gains among the number of Christians and self-proclaimed Christians just within the last couple years.
这对基督教来说尤其也是个好消息,因为就在过去这几年里,我们看到基督徒人数以及自称是基督徒的人数都有一些小幅增长,虽然确实只是小幅增长。
1276.82-1284.45
So, for instance, Ryan points out that the Protestant share of the population was 32% in 2022, and it's risen slightly to 33%.
比如,Ryan 指出,新教徒在人口中的比例在2022年是32%,现在略微上升到了33%。
1284.93-1289.58
The Catholic share has gone up 2% between 2022 and 2025.
公教徒的比例在2022年到2025年之间上升了2个百分点。
1289.64-1302.78
And so if you're wondering where are those nones going, some of them are going to non-Christian religions, but a lot of them are going to Protestantism and Catholicism, and a slight bit more seem to be going to Catholicism.
所以,如果你想知道那些无宗教归属者都去了哪里,其中一些人去了非基督教宗教,但很多人去了新教和公教,而且看起来稍微更多一点的人是去了公教。
1303.36-1308.44
This actually is part of a very fascinating broader trend.
这其实是一个非常有意思的更大趋势的一部分。
1308.58-1320.58
Now, there are a lot of negative trends of every generation being somewhat less religious than the one before it, but looking particularly at the comparison of Catholics and Protestants in the US, something fascinating is happening.
现在,确实有很多负面的趋势,就是每一代人都比前一代人稍微更不重视宗教。但如果特别看美国公教徒和新教徒之间的比较,就会发现一些很有意思的事情正在发生。
1320.91-1332.72
So, right now, amongst Baby Boomers, those born between the years 1946 and 1964, they're twice as likely to be Protestant as they are to be Catholic.
所以,现在在婴儿潮一代,也就是1946年到1964年出生的人当中,一个人成为新教徒的可能性大约是成为公教徒的两倍。
1333.10-1338.50
21% of Baby Boomers are Catholic and twice that, 42%, are Protestant.
婴儿潮一代当中,21%是公教徒,而两倍于这个数字的42%是新教徒。
1338.86-1344.50
Among Millennials, 16% of us are Catholic and 27% are Protestant.
在千禧一代当中,16%的人是公教徒,27%的人是新教徒。
1344.60-1347.62
So, again, more than half as many more.
所以,再说一次,新教徒还是多出了一大截。
1347.68-1355.66
So, if you've got five people, roughly three Protestants and two Catholics if, if it's all a Christian group.
所以,如果你有五个人,而且他们全都是基督徒,那大致上会是三位新教徒和两位公教徒。
1356.38-1360.24
Among Gen Z, we're seeing something very fascinating.
而在 Z 世代当中,我们看到的情况就非常有意思。
1360.42-1364.88
First, the number of Catholics appears to, if anything, be going up.
首先,公教徒的比例看起来反而是在上升。
1364.94-1374.08
It's 19% of the generation compared to 16% in the Millennial generation, and the number of Protestants is almost equal to that.
这个世代当中有19%是公教徒,而千禧一代里是16%。与此同时,新教徒的比例几乎和这个数字相当。
1374.12-1376.86
The gap is now 22 to 19.
现在两者之间的差距是22比19。
1377.00-1385.68
And in fact, in the 2023 data, which does seem to have been, in fairness, kind of fluke data, there were actually more Catholics who responded in that data set.
事实上,在2023年的数据里,虽然公平地说,那组数据看起来确实有点像偶然波动,但在那组数据中,回应调查的公教徒实际上更多。
1386.10-1390.96
And Ryan Bergin's done some good stuff calling attention to the fact that there was some weird stuff in the 2023 data.
而且 Ryan Bergin 也做了一些很好的工作,提醒大家注意2023年的数据里确实有一些奇怪的地方。
1391.00-1391.96
We don't really know why.
我们其实也不太知道为什么。
1392.06-1395.72
Sometimes polls, you just get a, a weird crop of people.
有时候民调就是会碰上一批比较特别的受访者。
1396.02-1405.66
But it does seem like that as you're seeing this growth, particularly amongst the young, there is a bit of a skew towards Catholicism.
但看起来确实是这样:随着这种增长的出现,尤其是在年轻人当中,这种变化多少有点偏向公教。
1405.72-1407.06
Now, there's a lot that goes into that.
当然,这里面有很多因素。
1407.12-1408.22
That's not all conversion.
这不全是因为皈依。
1408.26-1409.12
There can be immigration.
也可能有移民因素。
1409.14-1411.06
There can be people leaving Protestantism.
也可能有人离开新教。
1411.20-1418.39
But you've gone from a situation where it was two to one Protestant to almost one to one Protestant-Catholic.
但情况确实已经从原来新教对公教二比一,变成了现在几乎一比一。
1418.60-1421.31
And again, that's just looking at the Christian population.
再说一次,这还只是看基督徒人口内部的情况。
1421.66-1430.22
But we're seeing a conversion to religion, we're seeing a conversion to Christianity, and we're seeing a conversion to Catholicism in the data.
但从数据中,我们确实看到人们在转向宗教,转向基督教,也在转向公教。
1431.04-1435.82
Now, is that enough to say there's a nationwide revival?
那么,这就足以说全国范围内正在发生复兴吗?
1436.26-1437.59
I don't think we're there yet.
我觉得我们还没到那个地步。
1437.78-1441.30
I think there's some exciting signs that we could be heading in the right direction.
我认为确实有一些令人振奋的迹象,显示我们可能正在朝着正确的方向前进。
1442.12-1448.38
But what I do think we can say with a good deal of confidence is that we have some small fires blazing.
但我认为我们可以相当有把握地说,有一些小火苗已经燃起来了。
1448.68-1472.90
Now, I'm borrowing and somewhat misappropriating a line from James 3 here, where James, in describing sins of the tongue, says, How great a forest is set ablaze by a small fire.Now, the point he's drawing, small actions can have really big effects, is something that we should be mindful of, not only in terms of bad actions, like sins of the tongue, but also in good actions, like little revivals.
这里我借用了,也多少有点改用了雅各书3章里的一句话。雅各在描述舌头所犯的罪时说:「最小的火,能点着最大的树林。」他的意思是,小小的行为也能带来非常大的影响。我们应该记住这一点,不只是用在坏行为上,比如舌头的罪,也要用在好行为上,比如这些小规模的复兴。
1472.96-1486.76
And I was really pleased to see in The Atlantic article, Luis Peralta's making the same point, that if we over-emphasize the national trendlines, we might actually miss real changes on the ground in local communities.
而且我很高兴看到,在《大西洋月刊》的一篇文章里,Luis Peralta 也提出了同样的观点,就是如果我们过分强调全国性的趋势线,反而可能会错过地方社区里真实发生的变化。
1486.90-1493.90
And as he points out, a two-fold or three-fold increase in converts can change the composition of a campus or a parish.
而且正如他指出的那样,皈依人数增加两倍或三倍,就足以改变一所校园或一个堂区的构成。
1493.98-1502.16
It can increase its commitment to service, its interest in contemplation and conversation, its desire to foster a culture that isn't bogged down by careerism.
这可以增强他们对服务的投入,提高他们对默观与交谈的兴趣,也能增强他们建立一种不被功利主义拖累的文化的愿望。
1502.20-1517.60
And then he gives some really good points from history, that frequently when we see major historical kind of seismic shifts, it doesn't start out at the national level or at the level of culture, but rather, a committed counterculture.
然后他还举出一些很好的历史例子,说明很多时候,当我们看到重大的历史性震动时,它并不是从全国层面或整体文化层面开始的,而是从一个坚定投入的反文化群体开始的。
1517.62-1522.30
And he gives several examples, like the Temperance movement, the Abolitionist movement, Civil Rights movement.
他举了几个例子,比如禁酒运动、废奴运动,还有民权运动。
1522.35-1533.94
But he also gives the example of the Dominicans, that the Dominicans started out as this small movement that then changed the face of Europe, and now might be changing the face of Greenwich Village.
但他也举了道明会的例子。道明会起初只是这样一个小小的运动,后来却改变了欧洲的面貌,而现在也许正在改变格林尼治村的面貌。
1534.40-1544.34
So, I think this is something to bear in mind, that on some level, whether there's a national revival or not, it's an important question, but it's not the only important question.
所以,我觉得有一点我们要记住,就是从某个层面上说,全国范围内到底有没有复兴,这当然是个重要问题,但它不是唯一重要的问题。
1544.46-1549.14
Is there a revival in your heart, in your parish, in your community?
你的心里、你的堂区里、你的社群里,有没有复兴?
1549.42-1552.64
And if there is, amazing things can happen there.
如果有,那里面就可能发生很惊人的事。
1553.58-1562.66
And so I wanna kind of end with some helpful advice about not quenching the Spirit, and also trying to cultivate this flame.
所以我想用一些有帮助的建议来作结,一方面是关于不要消灭圣灵的感动,另一方面是关于怎样培养这团火。
1563.08-1565.06
So first, how do we not quench the Spirit?
所以首先,我们怎样才不消灭圣灵的感动?
1565.40-1569.04
Now, you might recognize that as a line from 1 Thessalonians 5:19.
你可能听得出来,这句话出自帖撒罗尼迦前书5章19节。
1569.11-1575.46
We'll get into the broader context Saint Paul gives for that, because I think it's something we have to be very mindful of.
我们等一下会讲到保罗给出这句话时更广的上下文,因为我觉得这是我们必须非常留心的事。
1575.70-1582.72
But I'm a big believer that when things are going well, you should, at that point, be considering how to prepare for hard times.
不过我非常相信一件事,就是当事情进展顺利的时候,你正应该在那时考虑怎样为艰难时期做准备。
1582.78-1588.78
Don't just assume the good times are gonna keep being good forever, so you gather acorns during the summer.
不要只是以为好日子会永远持续下去,所以要在夏天收集橡子。
1589.06-1595.70
Or, in the terms of Saint Ignatius of Loyola, during times of contemplation, you remember desolation.
或者用罗耀拉的圣依纳爵的话说,就是在灵里安慰的时候,要记得灵里枯干的时候。
1595.74-1603.48
When things are going well for you spiritually, you build up these sort of resources to survive when things might be going more poorly.
当你在灵性上状况良好的时候,你要积累这类资源,好让你在情况变差的时候还能撑过去。
1603.54-1609.14
And so it can be really good to think about, what are all the ways this can go off the rails?
所以,认真想一想这件事可能会在哪些方面脱轨,其实是很有帮助的。
1609.28-1612.78
And there's a lot of things we can do wrong with it.
而且我们在这件事上确实可能犯很多错。
1612.84-1620.36
There are a lot of ways we can thwart this and we can put out the kind of fires of revival that the Holy Spirit appears to be starting.
我们有很多方式会妨碍这件事,也会把圣灵似乎正在点燃的那种复兴之火扑灭。
1620.40-1624.52
We can quench the Spirit in a lot of ways, if we're not careful.
如果我们不小心,就会用很多方式消灭圣灵的感动。
1624.58-1642.28
And one of the ways, and I don't mean to make a point about any political party in particular, is to watch out that we don't tie this just into a political movement, because a lot of the studies and speculation and commentary around this is wanting to say, how much of this is partisan?
其中一种方式,而且我不是特意要针对任何一个政党,就是要小心,不要把这件事单单绑在某个政治运动上,因为围绕这件事的很多研究、猜测和评论都在问,这里面到底有多少是党派性的?
1642.48-1651.64
And the good news is, we're actually seeing a drop in the nones, a drop in the religiously unaffiliated among conservatives, liberals, and independents.
而好消息是,我们实际上看到,无宗教归属者的比例正在下降,不管是在保守派、自由派,还是无党派人士当中,都是如此。
1652.08-1655.12
It doesn't appear to just be a political movement.
这看起来并不只是一个政治运动。
1655.58-1667.08
We will get ourselves in trouble if we tie Catholic revival into one party or one ideology or one social project, no matter how good that may be.
如果我们把公教复兴绑在某一个政党、某一种意识形态,或某一个社会项目上,不管那东西看起来多么好,我们最后都会给自己惹来麻烦。
1667.38-1671.10
And you can see that pretty clearly just by looking at the data.
而且你只要看看数据,就能很清楚地看到这一点。
1671.70-1691.12
So, the last 20 midterm elections, going all the way back to 1946, in 18 of them, there were two exceptions for what are pretty clear reasons, in 1998 because of, uh, annoyance with the Republican Congress, and in 2002 because of post-9/11 support for George W. Bush.
所以,在最近20次中期选举里,一路往回看到1946年,其中有18次都是如此。只有两次是例外,而且原因也相当清楚。一次是1998年,因为人们对共和党控制的国会感到不满;另一次是2002年,因为九一一之后人们对 George W. Bush 的支持。
1691.34-1695.32
In two cases, the president's party gained seats.
在这两次里,总统所属的政党增加了议席。
1695.62-1701.78
In the other 18 cases, they lost seats, oftentimes quite dramatically.
而在另外18次里,他们都失去了议席,而且往往失得相当厉害。
1701.92-1705.00
Now, I mention this for, uh, a clear reason.
我提这件事,是有一个很明确的原因。
1705.86-1717.98
If you hitch the bandwagon of Jesus Christ and his Church to a political party, you're gonna be subject to the vagaries of politics, and there is this inherent political cycle.
如果你把耶稣基督和他的教会绑到某个政党的战车上,你就一定会受政治变幻无常的影响,而政治本身就有这种内在的周期性。
1718.34-1722.46
Regularly, a party in its ascendancy will say, Aha, the future is us.
经常会有一个正处在上升期的政党说,啊哈,未来是属于我们的。
1722.70-1724.00
We're, you know, we're the future.
我们就是未来。
1724.06-1736.93
We're gonna be the winners forever, and then two years later, four years later, reality hits them in the face, and then the other party says the same thing, and reality hits them in the face a couple years later, and so it goes.
我们会永远是赢家。可是两年后、四年后,现实就会迎面打到他们脸上。然后另一个政党又会说同样的话,过几年现实也会打到他们脸上。事情就是这样反复发生。
1737.02-1745.84
And so if you tie Catholicism, or Christianity more broadly, to any ideological movement, to any political party, we will pay for it in the long run.
所以,如果你把公教,或者更广泛地说,把基督教,绑到任何意识形态运动或任何政党上,从长远来看,我们都会为此付出代价。
1745.90-1755.06
That doesn't mean you can't be political and religious, but I would suggest we think of it like we would think about any number of other things.
这并不是说你不能既关心政治又有宗教信仰,但我建议我们把这件事看得像其他很多事情一样。
1755.46-1764.44
If you are in a bowling club and you're really into your faith and you can bond with your friends over bowling and religion, wonderful.
如果你在一个保龄球俱乐部里,你很认真对待自己的信仰,也能因为保龄球和宗教跟朋友建立联系,那很好。
1765.12-1774.36
But if you insist for someone to be a true Christian or true Catholic, they have to be part of your bowling league, now you've gone too far.
但如果你坚持认为,一个人要成为真正的基督徒或真正的公教徒,就必须加入你的保龄球联赛,那你就走得太远了。
1774.44-1778.84
So by all means, be political, but within bounds, and those bounds should be really simple.
所以,当然可以关心政治,但要有界限,而这些界限其实应该很简单。
1778.96-1784.24
Number one, on issues that are prudential, don't demand everyone agree with you.
第一,在那些属于审慎判断的问题上,不要要求每个人都同意你。
1784.30-1791.34
And number two, on issues that aren't prudential, make sure you're listening to the Church over your preferred political party.
第二,在那些不只是审慎判断的问题上,要确保你听从的是教会,而不是你偏好的政党。
1791.80-1801.60
If you follow those things, go be political, but keep it in those bounds where people still feel welcomed even if they have different ideas about, say, tax policy than you do.
如果你能守住这些原则,那你就去关心政治吧,但要把它控制在这样的界限里,就是即使别人和你在比如税收政策上的看法不同,他们仍然会觉得自己是被欢迎的。
1802.24-1808.98
That's my kind of word of warning about not quenching, and similarly, we don't wanna quench by being jerks, et cetera.
这就是我关于不要消灭这团火的一点提醒。同样地,我们也不要因为自己待人刻薄之类的原因去把它扑灭。
1809.00-1810.94
We're gonna return to that at the very end.
这一点我们最后还会再回来讲。
1811.10-1814.06
But positively, how do we stoke the fires?
不过从积极的一面来说,我们该怎样把这火烧旺呢?
1814.12-1815.76
Like, it's not enough to just not quench them.
只是不要把它扑灭,这还不够。
1815.96-1818.58
Obviously, don't put the fires out.
显然,不要把火扑灭。
1818.76-1820.98
But how do we help fan them into flames?
但我们怎样才能帮助把它扇成烈火呢?
1821.28-1829.31
And I wanted to look at a couple of concrete, admittedly purely anecdotal, cases here that I think have something to say .
我想在这里看几个具体的例子。坦白说,这些都只是个案,但我觉得它们对我们还是有一些启发。
1829.40-1830.33
for us?
对我们来说。
1830.47-1838.77
Number one, from the New York Times piece, uh, one of the people Elizabeth Diaz looks at is Amon-Ra Prior, who is a PhD student, Howard.
第一,在《纽约时报》的那篇文章里,Elizabeth Diaz 关注的其中一个人是 Amon-Ra Prior,他是 Howard 的一名博士生。
1839.39-1841.55
He started his freshman year of college during the pandemic.
他是在疫情期间开始大学一年级的。
1841.93-1843.75
He struggled with depression, finding community.
他一直在抑郁和寻找归属群体这两方面挣扎。
1844.15-1852.78
He had grown up non-religious and agnostic, and then through friends, was introduced to non-denominational Christianity.
他从小是在没有宗教信仰、也偏向不可知论的环境中长大的,后来通过朋友接触到了无宗派基督教。
1853.07-1861.45
That then got him asking deeper questions about what it mean, what it means to live a good life, to do good, what is faith, is faith reasonable?
这就让他开始追问更深的问题,比如过一个好的生活是什么意思,行善是什么意思,信心是什么,信心是否合乎理性。
1861.97-1865.49
That then takes him down some rabbit holes.
接着这又把他带进了一连串更深入的探索。
1865.53-1867.87
He starts reading ancient philosophy from Christian thinkers.
他开始阅读基督徒思想家的古代哲学著作。
1867.91-1872.81
He starts watching YouTube videos from Catholic apologists, like Thomistic Institute and Taylor Marshall.
他开始看公教护教学者的 YouTube 视频,比如 Thomistic Institute 和 Taylor Marshall。
1873.37-1884.31
When he moves to Washington, he starts attending mass at St. Augustine's, a congregation started by emancipated Black Catholics before the Civil War, and there he is going to be received into the church at Easter Vigil.
后来他搬到华盛顿,开始在圣奥古斯丁堂参加弥撒。那是一个由内战前获得自由的黑人公教徒建立的会众。而在那里,他将在复活节守夜礼时被接纳进入教会。
1884.43-1888.13
So, I give his story to just say, okay, what can we draw from that?
所以,我讲他的故事,就是想问,好,我们能从中得出什么呢?
1888.50-1891.75
Number one, there's a place for apologetics.
第一,护教学是有其位置的。
1891.81-1892.55
I'm an apologist.
我自己就是做护教学的。
1892.73-1894.01
I have to plug that.
我总得顺带提一下这个。
1894.05-1896.77
But number two, that's not at all the only place.
但第二点,那绝不是唯一的途径。
1897.47-1907.07
This culture of invitation was really good in getting him to some kind of community first in non-denominational Christianity, and then getting him to ask the deeper questions.
这种邀请的文化,先是很有效地把他带进了某种群体生活里,而且最初是在无宗派基督教里面,然后又推动他去问那些更深的问题。
1907.25-1919.57
Apologetics can then fill that hole, but that hole doesn't get prompted to be filled by you just approaching strangers and saying like, Hey, why are you not watching Shameless Potpourri?
然后护教学可以填补那个空缺,但那个空缺并不会因为你走到陌生人面前说一句「嘿,你为什么不看无耻教皇党杂烩?」就被激发出来想要填补。
1919.69-1921.03
Although, by all means, you can do that.
当然,你真要这么做也可以。
1921.13-1922.29
I won't be upset.
我不会介意。
1922.57-1946.29
But it's probably more effective if you actually just form friendships with people, and this is something that is a recurring theme in what we're hearing from pastors, what we're hearing from bishops, that one of the things people are responding to is a sense of loneliness, and as they're finding community, when that community is centered around Jesus Christ, that's what's getting people to start asking questions like, Is this true?
但如果你真的去和人建立友谊,大概会更有效。而且这是我们从牧者那里、从主教那里一再听到的一个主题,就是人们所回应的其中一样东西,是那种孤独感。而当他们找到群体时,如果那个群体是以耶稣基督为中心的,这就会让人开始去问:「这是真的吗?」这样的问题。
1946.73-1952.35
So, it's not either/or, the theology and apologetics or the community.
所以,这不是非此即彼,不是神学和护教学,或者群体生活,二选一。
1952.41-1953.55
It's both/and.
而是两者都要。
1953.59-1964.31
They have this really important relationship of people being invited into something that then gets them to ask deeper questions than they might have asked on their own.
这两者之间有一种非常重要的关系,就是人先被邀请进入某种生活当中,然后这会让他们提出比自己一个人时更深的问题。
1964.81-1971.79
And Archbishop Rozanski, the Archbishop of St. Louis, which has also seen tremendous growth lately, makes this same point.
而圣路易斯总主教区的总主教 Rozanski 也提出了同样的观点。那个地方最近也有非常显著的增长。
1971.81-1977.79
He said, There have been two significant societal shifts in recent years that have upended the human sense of community.
他说,近年来有两个重大的社会变化,彻底打乱了人对群体的感受。
1977.87-1984.65
One of those is technology, another is COVID. And this has made people more isolated, more alone.
其中一个是科技,另一个是新冠疫情。而这让人变得更加孤立,也更加孤单。
1984.79-1986.61
I think he's right on the money there.
我觉得他这话说得非常到位。
1987.35-1994.23
And he said, We're realizing that many of the ills of our society, things like anxiety and depression, come about from that isolation.
他说,我们正在意识到,社会上的很多问题,比如焦虑和抑郁,都是从这种孤立状态里产生出来的。
1994.27-2011.41
Like, we know rates of anxiety and depression are way up, and he said, and I think he's right here, that the loneliest cohort of people are those between 18 and 30, to 35, and several dioceses have seen a lot of growth among this demographic.
我们知道,焦虑和抑郁的比例已经大幅上升了。而他说,我觉得他这点也说得对,最孤独的一群人是18岁到30岁,或者到35岁之间的人,而好几个教区都看到这个年龄层有很大的增长。
2011.47-2017.84
So, you have people who have been isolated, who've been alone, and one of the things we have to offer is community.
所以,你面对的是一些一直处在孤立和独处状态里的人,而我们能提供给他们的其中一样东西,就是群体。
2018.13-2024.03
And I mention this because I'm not saying to, like, water down evangelization, water down apologetics, any of that.
我提这点,是因为我并不是在说要把福传淡化,或者把护教学淡化,完全不是这个意思。
2024.19-2028.19
Hopefully, if you've ever watched this channel before, you know I don't believe in doing that.
如果你以前看过这个频道,你大概知道,我并不赞成那样做。
2028.21-2032.05
But I do believe that as Catholics, we often over-complicate it.
但我确实认为,作为公教徒,我们常常把这件事想得太复杂了。
2032.39-2038.59
We imagine that if I'm going to be an effective evangelist, I have to have an answer for every question people have.
我们会以为,如果我要成为一个有效的福传者,我就必须能回答别人提出的每一个问题。
2038.73-2039.73
You don't.
其实不用。
2040.15-2041.91
Frequently, you just have to invite them.
很多时候,你只是需要邀请他们。
2042.07-2043.25
You just have to show up.
你只需要出现。
2043.61-2044.83
You just have to befriend them.
你只需要和他们做朋友。
2044.93-2051.47
You have to accompany them, and God will do the rest, even if you can't answer all the hard questions.
你需要陪伴他们,剩下的事神会做,即使你回答不了所有难题也是一样。
2051.57-2060.45
And look, if you're someone who regularly watches this show, I'll go out on a limb and say you're probably better than average in answering those hard questions if they do come up.
而且你看,如果你是经常看这个节目的那种人,那我愿意大胆说一句,要是真的碰上那些难题,你大概本来就比一般人更会回答。
2060.93-2077.85
Just don't let your intellectual limitations or your anxiety or your ego get in the way of just taking the risk of inviting people in The New York Times article also said that this is what we're seeing in the data.
只是不要让你知识上的局限、你的焦虑,或者你的自我,拦阻你去冒这个险,向别人发出邀请。《纽约时报》的那篇文章也说,这正是我们在数据中看到的。
2078.89-2082.63
Only 8% of the roughly 53 million Catholic adults in the US are converts.
在美国大约5300万成年公教徒当中,只有8%是皈依者。
2082.67-2091.35
So, we're not doing as well as we could be in terms of conversions, and the main reason people convert is because of marriage.
所以,就皈依这方面来说,我们做得还没有本来可以做到的那么好,而人们皈依的主要原因是婚姻。
2091.47-2096.79
But there are other reasons as well, like spiritual fulfillment, friends, and family.
但还有其他原因,比如灵性上的满足、朋友,还有家人。
2096.95-2121.93
That's what people say in terms of why they're converting, and so that gives us good tools because even if you can't answer every question, you can probably give someone a good spiritual book, you can be friendly, you can make people feel welcomed, and that goes a long way towards meeting the needs, the human and spiritual needs, that people have identified for themselves.
这些就是人们自己说的皈依原因。所以这也给了我们一些很好的方法,因为即使你回答不了每一个问题,你大概也可以送人一本好的灵修书,可以友善待人,可以让别人感觉自己是被欢迎的,而这些做法对于满足人们已经意识到的那些需要,不管是人的需要还是灵性的需要,都会有很大的帮助。
2122.43-2127.37
Now, here, as I was preparing this episode, I encountered some more good news.
另外,我在准备这一期节目的时候,又看到了一些好消息。
2127.53-2162.11
I had always heard that after OCIA, after then-RCIA, and after the Easter vigil that there's a huge drop-off, where the first year, a lot of people who have gone through all of this work to become Catholic then just disappear, and it turns out that the Center for the Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University did some work on this about 10 years ago and found out that that just wasn't true, that actually, the retention rates are quite high amongst converts to the faith, that they're more likely to go to mass, and that even years on, overwhelmingly, they're still Catholic.
我一直听人说,在 OCIA,以前叫 RCIA,以及复活节守夜礼之后,会有很严重的流失,就是很多人辛辛苦苦走完整个过程成为公教徒,结果第一年之后就消失了。但事实证明,乔治城大学的使徒工作应用研究中心大约在十年前就研究过这个问题,发现这种说法其实并不是真的。实际上,皈依信仰的人留存率相当高,他们更有可能去参加弥撒,而且即使过了很多年,压倒性多数的人仍然是公教徒。
2163.05-2169.29
What does happen, and this New York Times article sort of points to that, is that people do move.
真正会发生的事,而且《纽约时报》的那篇文章也有点提到这一点,就是人们确实会搬家。
2169.67-2188.83
So, if you're someone who is going through Parish A's OCIA program and you're in the process of getting married and you get married in that parish, you and your spouse may go set up life somewhere else and you might be in a different parish So, from Parish A's perspective, you've just disappeared, and so maybe they just think, like, Oh, no, they, they got married.
所以,如果你在 A 堂区参加 OCIA,同时你也正在准备结婚,并且就在那个堂区结了婚,那么你和你的配偶后来很可能会去别的地方安家,也可能会在另一个堂区生活。这样一来,从 A 堂区的角度看,你就像是消失了一样,所以他们也许就会想,哦,不,他们结婚之后就不见了。
2188.89-2193.65
They went through all that process of coming into the Church, and then they just stopped going to mass.
他们走完了整个进入教会的过程,然后就不再去弥撒了。
2193.71-2201.04
But maybe you're a regular mass-goer deeply involved in Parish B, where you and your new spouse have just moved in together.
但也许其实你已经成了 B 堂区里一位稳定参加弥撒、而且深度投入的信徒,因为你和新婚配偶刚刚搬到那里一起生活。
2201.24-2208.10
And so, the good news that I'm finding is the retention rates were actually much better than I thought they were.
所以,我看到的好消息是,留存率实际上比我原先以为的好得多。
2208.12-2214.38
And so there's a kind of popular narrative about a post-Easter vigil drop-off that isn't totally true.
所以,关于复活节守夜礼之后会大量流失的那种常见说法,并不完全属实。
2214.46-2231.18
Nevertheless, this is a great time, as Easter vigil is upon us, for you to seriously think about inviting someone who is either curious about Catholicism or, in a special way, is newly brought into the Church, and help them to get more connected.
不过,既然复活节守夜礼就要到了,这正是一个很好的时机,让你好好想一想,去邀请那些对公教感到好奇的人,或者特别是那些刚刚进入教会的人,帮助他们和群体建立更多联系。
2231.32-2232.78
Have coffee with them.
和他们一起喝咖啡。
2232.86-2234.66
Invite them to things.
邀请他们参加一些活动。
2234.78-2237.34
Let them feel that deep sense of community.
让他们感受到那种深厚的群体归属感。
2237.38-2245.21
Catholic parishes are often quite large, and we don't often have the organizational structure that you sometimes see among, like, Protestant mega-churches.
公教堂区往往都相当大,而我们通常也没有像一些新教大型教会那样的组织结构。
2245.30-2248.86
And so there isn't a built-in system to help us do this.
所以,并没有一个现成的系统来帮助我们做这件事。
2248.93-2252.20
We have to just step up to the plate and do it.
我们只能自己站出来,把这件事做起来。
2252.24-2255.50
And so that's what I wanna give you by way of counsel.
所以,这就是我想给你的一点建议。
2256.04-2259.46
But I wanna let Saint Paul give even better counsel.
不过,我更想让圣保罗给出更好的劝勉。
2259.81-2262.14
This is the passage I promised to get back to.
这就是我刚才答应要回头讲的那段经文。
2262.68-2268.62
He says, See that none of you repays evil for evil, but always seek to do good to one another and to all.
他说:「你们要谨慎,无论是谁都不可以恶报恶;或是彼此相待,或是待众人,常要追求良善。」
2268.68-2270.04
Rejoice always.
「要常常喜乐。」
2270.14-2271.52
Pray constantly.
「不住的祷告。」
2271.60-2277.38
Give thanks in all circumstances, for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you.
「凡事谢恩;因为这是神在基督耶稣里向你们所定的旨意。」
2277.42-2278.96
Do not quench the Spirit.
「不要消灭圣灵的感动。」
2279.18-2282.39
Do not despise prophesy, but test everything.
「不要藐视先知的讲论。但要凡事察验。」
2282.66-2284.16
Hold fast what is good.
「善美的要持守。」
2284.54-2286.84
Abstain from every form of evil.
「各样的恶事要禁戒不作。」
2286.92-2289.67
Like, that is good advice for every one of us.
这对我们每一个人来说,都是很好的劝告。
2289.74-2291.08
That's good counsel.
这是很好的劝勉。
2291.12-2293.40
Those are good commands from an apostle.
这是来自一位使徒的好命令。
2293.70-2303.27
But those are also the steps we need to take for healthy cultures, healthy communities, and to really fan the flames of revival.
但这些也正是我们要建立健康文化、健康群体,并真正把复兴之火扇旺所需要采取的步骤。
2303.36-2332.90
If we have a culture where we are rejoicing, where we're not tearing each other down but have an attitude of gratitude - I know it rhymed, I apologize - of, of real thankfulness, that we are praying constantly, that we're really living this out, we're not just arguing about theology on the internet but are actually committed to a life of prayer, if you follow these steps, if you hold on to what is good while abstaining from every form of evil, we'll see some tremendous growth.
如果我们有这样一种文化,就是我们活在喜乐里,不是彼此拆毁,而是真正怀着感恩的态度,我知道这话还押韵了,抱歉,是真正的感谢;如果我们不住地祷告,真正把这些活出来,不只是上网争论神学,而是真正委身于祷告的生活;如果你照着这些步骤去做,持守善美,同时禁戒各样的恶事,那我们就会看到非常惊人的增长。
2333.12-2334.84
Now, I want to leave you with two things.
最后,我想留给你们两件事。
2335.06-2343.16
Number one, I want to really encourage those of you who may be coming into the Church to share your story in the comments below, because it really makes a difference.
第一,我真的很鼓励那些可能正在进入教会的你们,在下方评论里分享你们的故事,因为这真的会带来影响。
2343.22-2347.38
It's really encouraging to hear from all of you who are coming into the Church.
听到你们这些正在进入教会的人分享,真的很鼓舞人。
2347.74-2351.00
I know it's gratifying to me, I know it's gratifying to a lot of people.
我知道这会让我很受鼓舞,我也知道这会让很多人都很受鼓舞。
2351.23-2355.50
And I know that I and the other people will be praying for you.
而且我知道,我和其他人都会为你们祷告。
2356.10-2362.17
And two, if you're interested, I thought it might be helpful to look at another dimension of the Church.
第二,如果你有兴趣,我觉得看看教会的另一个面向也许会有帮助。
2362.24-2371.98
Because just as we have all of these young, vibrant people coming into the Church by way of conversion, we also have a lot of young, vibrant people becoming priests.
因为就像我们看到有这么多年轻、充满活力的人通过皈依进入教会一样,我们也看到有很多年轻、充满活力的人正在成为祭司。
2372.06-2385.40
And so, if you're interested in nerding out over f- the data and what it means for the future of the Church, you might appreciate this video I did on what the young priests look like in the US. For Shameless Potpourri, I'm Joe Heschmeyer.
所以,如果你有兴趣认真研究这些数据,以及它们对教会未来意味着什么,你也许会喜欢我做的那期视频,讲的是美国年轻祭司的情况。这里是无耻教皇党杂烩,我是 Joe Heschmeyer。
2385.52-2386.02
God bless you.
愿神祝福你。