Transcript
0.08-1.24
Welcome back to Shameless Potpourri.
欢迎再次回到 Shameless Potpourri。
1.30-8.16
I'm Joe Heschmeyer, and I cannot go on social media right now without being barraged by people sharing fake news with me.
我是 Joe Heschmeyer,只要我一上社交媒体,就会被人狂轰滥炸地转发假新闻。
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And I don't mean opinions I disagree with.
我说的不是那些和我意见不同的观点。
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I mean, sharing things that are just factually untrue.
而是说他们分享的内容在事实层面上就是假的。
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It's everything from a theory that is claiming things that just did not happen, or AI generated art, pictures that the person can't tell aren't real.
情况五花八门:有的阴谋论声称发生过根本没发生的事,还有人分享 AI 生成的艺术图,发布者自己都分不清那不是真实照片。
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So much of modern life is spent combating not just differences of opinion or perspective, but just outright the battle between truth and error.
现代生活中,我们花太多时间不仅在应对不同的观点或角度,而是在真理与错误之间进行正面对决。
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And this is likely to become, uh, reignited in many ways.
而这种战斗在很多方面可能都会被重新点燃。
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One of those, recently, Donald Trump announced that he was going to declassify all of the records concerning the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and Dr. Martin Luther King.
举例来说,最近唐纳德·特朗普宣布,他要解密所有关于约翰·F·肯尼迪总统、参议员罗伯特·F·肯尼迪和马丁·路德·金博士遇刺事件的全部档案。
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And with all of those, there are different levels of conspiracy theories, people claiming to know what really happened.
对于这些事件,早已有各种层次的阴谋论,人们声称自己知道真正发生了什么。
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And so I was recently asked on Patreon, which by the way, shamelessjoe.com if you want to join, I was asked on Patreon, What do we make of that spiritually?
所以最近有人在 Patreon 上问我——顺便说一下,如果你想加入,可以去 shamelessjoe.com——他们问我:从属灵角度我们该怎么看这件事?
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Because when you have these conspiracy theories about major world events or about really whatever, because we see this in theology, Oh, the Catholic Church is covering up such and such.
因为当你面对关于重大世界事件,或者其实任何事情的阴谋论时——我们在神学里也能看到,比如有人说「公教会在隐瞒某些事情」。
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We see it in politics, Oh, the government is covering up such and such.
在政治领域也会出现,比如有人说「政府在掩盖某些事情」。
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We see it even in sports, Oh, the Kansas City Chiefs get all the calls.
甚至在体育界也有,比如有人说「堪萨斯城酋长队总是得到所有判罚」。
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You thought I wasn't gonna mention the Chiefs?
你以为我不会提到酋长队吗?
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Come on, I'm wearing red all week.
拜托,我这一整周都穿着红色呢。
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In all of these areas from the trivial and, you know, mundane and playful, to the really serious accusations, we find people very willing to entertain theories about reality that are, one, contrary to the mainstream narrative, that's fine.
在所有这些领域里,从琐碎、日常、带点玩笑的到非常严肃的指控,我们发现人们很乐意接受一些关于现实的理论:第一,它们与主流叙事相反——这倒无妨;
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But two, making very accusatory, damning sort of accusations about one's neighbor.
但第二,它们会对他人做出带有定罪性的强烈指控。
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That's where it's not fine.
这就不行了。
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So let's get into that, uh, and, and kind of delve in.
所以让我们深入聊聊这个话题。
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As I kind of intimated, I wanna make a threefold distinction, because a lot of things get lumped in as conspiracy theories when technically they're not.
正如我刚才提到的,我想做一个三分法,因为很多被贴上阴谋论标签的东西,严格来说并不是。
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So for instance, if you're someone who thinks, Oh, modern Egyptologists are factually mistaken.
比方说,如果你觉得「现代埃及学家在事实层面弄错了」。
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The pyramids are way older than they appear.
金字塔的历史远比看上去要久远。
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They were maybe put there by another civilization or aliens or something like that.
它们可能是其他文明,甚至外星人建造的,诸如此类。
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That might be wrong, but that's not by itself a conspiracy theory.
这或许是错的,但本身还算不上阴谋论。
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That's just, if you wanna call it an alternate history, something like that, fine.
你要把它称作另类历史也行。
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If you think essential oils cure cancer, we might disagree, but by itself, that's not a conspiracy theory.
如果你认为精油能治癌症,我们可以不同意,但这本身也不是阴谋论。
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That's just an alternate approach to medicine.
那只是另一种医疗思路。
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So in this three-fold distinction, the first and the most acceptable is just disbelieving the official version of things, or the popular version of things.
所以在这三分法里,第一种、也最能接受的,就是不相信官方或大众的说法。
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Frequently, the official or popular version is wrong, or at least incomplete.
官方或大众的说法常常是错误的,或者至少是不完整的。
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In fact, if you think about the great advances in medicine, say, many of them wouldn't have been made without a bunch of people willing to distrust that we have everything basically sorted out.
事实上,如果你回顾医学等领域的重大突破,很多都是因为有人不相信「我们已经把一切都弄清楚了」。
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Likewise, you know, a detective investigating a crime, like there are times where it's really good to have that eye towards, Eh, maybe it's not the way it seems on the surface.
同样,侦探在调查案件时,有时候保持一种「也许事情并不像表面那样」的敏锐眼光是很好的。
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By itself, not sinful.
就本身来说,并不是罪。
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Where we start to get into more problematic territory is that second tier, believing that the official story isn't just wrong, but it's actually a lie.
真正开始变得棘手的是第二层:认为官方说法不仅是错的,而且是彻头彻尾的谎言。
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It's part of an intentional cover-up.
这是刻意掩盖的一部分。
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That, again, can sometimes be true, but we're starting to get into murkier waters.
这种情况有时确实存在,但这就开始变得更加灰暗难辨了。
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Though it's not the kind of charge you wanna throw out willy-nilly.
不过这可不是你随口就能抛出的指控。
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And then third, the really full-throated sense of the word, or term, conspiracy theory, is not just thinking that the official version is wrong, but believing that you somehow have the real story that the powers that be are trying to cover up.
第三,也是「阴谋论」这个词最彻底的含义,就是不仅认为官方版本是错的,还相信自己掌握了当权者想要掩盖的真实内幕。
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You know the actual truth, and that's where you're on the shakiest ground.
也就是说你自认知道真正的真相,而这正是最站不住脚的立场。
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Again, unless you have really good evidence, like if you've discovered the smoking gun document, fine, great.
除非你真有过硬的证据,比如找到了一份「罪证确凿」的文件,那当然另当别论。
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But if it's just you at home on the internet, deciding you, you know better than everyone else who's professionally looked into this, you should be extremely hesitant to go to that place just because of the spiritual implication.
但如果你只是宅在家里上网,就觉得自己比所有专业人士都更清楚,那就应当因属灵层面的后果而格外犹豫,不要轻易走到那一步。
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I'll get into what those are, but I would be remiss if before addressing where s- conspiracy theories go wrong, I didn't acknowledge why it makes sense for them to be so popular right now.
我稍后会解释这些属灵后果是什么,但在讨论阴谋论哪里出错之前,我得先说明它们如今为何如此流行是有原因的。
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Now, to get a sense for their popularity, you have to really go back in time, as it were.
要想理解它们为何受欢迎,我们得把时间真正倒回去。
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Imagine briefly the world of the mid-twentieth century, where there's a tremendous amount of trust in what we call elite institutions, in the church, in churches, you know, in Protestant denominations, in every social institution, in businesses, in the government, etc. People trusted the powers that be were leading them more or less well, even if it wasn't the president you happened to vote for, even if it wasn't your leader.
想象一下二十世纪中期的世界:人们对我们所谓的精英机构——教会、各个新教宗派、社会上的每一个机构、企业以及政府等等——怀有巨大的信任。即便当权者不是你投票支持的总统,也不是你所属的领袖,人们仍相信他们大体上在正确带领大家。
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We see that in the numbers, we see it in the way things are talked about, in the way, you know, press coverage works.
这一点从各种数据、公共讨论的方式以及媒体报道的运作方式都能看出来。
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And the problem here, although there's a lot that's really good about that, is that this sometimes masked real evil being done.
问题在于,虽然这种信任有不少好处,但它有时掩盖了正在发生的真正恶行。
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So I wanna actually start with a, a story that I had long thought of as basically presidential trivia, before really grappling with how grave and sinful and arrogant this move was.
因此我想先讲一个故事——我以前只把它当作总统轶事,却没有认真体会这件事究竟多么严重、多么有罪又多么傲慢。
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And by that, I mean the covering up of President FDR's physical ailments, his ailing health, as well as his, uh, paraplegia and being confined largely to a wheelchair.
我指的是罗斯福总统身体状况被掩盖的那件事:他的健康每况愈下,而且他其实下肢瘫痪,大部分时间都坐在轮椅上。
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As the global war reached its devastating climax, Franklin Roosevelt was the supreme figure of the wartime alliance, but also a man living on borrowed time.
当全球战争走向最惨烈的高潮时,富兰克林·罗斯福既是同盟国的最高领袖,同时也是一个在借来的时间里苟延残喘的人。
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Roosevelt's health was collapsing.
罗斯福的健康正在迅速恶化。
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Sapped by chronic heart disease and by two decades as a secret paraplegic.One wartime American general nicknamed him Rubber Legs.
长期的心脏病再加上二十年隐瞒的瘫痪使他精疲力竭。一位战时的美国将军给他起了个绰号,叫「橡胶腿」。
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But few Americans were aware that their president could not walk unaided or that he'd been diagnosed as being on the brink of cardiac failure.
可是,几乎没有美国人知道,他们的总统无法独立行走,甚至被诊断为随时可能心脏衰竭。
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So in the middle of World War II, while much of the world is relying upon American leadership, FDR arrogantly decides to run for a fourth presidential term, which had never been done before, even though he and those around him secretly know that his health is so bad that he is almost certainly going to die in office, which of course he does.
于是,在二战正酣、世界大量依赖美国领导的时候,罗斯福仍傲然决定竞选第四个总统任期——这在历史上从未发生过——尽管他本人和身边的人心知肚明,他的健康状况糟糕到几乎必定会在任内去世,结果他果然如此。
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And he waits till the end to even choose a vice president, knowing he is individually going to be selecting the president for the country, knowledge the American people don't have.
他甚至拖到最后才挑选副总统,因为他清楚自己实际上是在为国家挑下一任总统,而美国人民并不知道这一点。
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Now, my point here is not that an aging president would never try a move like that today.
我要说的并不是如今年迈的总统绝不会做出这种举动。
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My point is that when Roosevelt did it, it worked.
我的重点是,罗斯福当年这么做,居然成功了。
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The media was complicit in covering for him.
媒体同样配合帮他隐瞒。
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The other people who consulted with the president, those surrounding FDR, even those who disagreed with him strongly, didn't sound the alarm and say, Hey, he is really sick.
与总统打交道的其他人、罗斯福身边的幕僚,甚至那些强烈反对他的人,都没有敲响警钟说「嘿,他病得很严重」。
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And oh, by the way, did you know he's been in a wheelchair for 20 years?
而且,顺带一提,你知道他已经坐轮椅二十年了吗?
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It just doesn't happen.
这根本就没发生。
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So FDR wins a fourth term.
于是,罗斯福赢得了第四个任期。
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The American people don't find out that their president is confined to a wheelchair, and then he dies.
美国人民依然不知道他们的总统被束缚在轮椅上,随后他就去世了。
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And Harry S. Truman, who FDR had kept in the dark even on things like the Manhattan Project, is forced to figure out what to do with this atomic bomb he didn't know about.
而哈里·S·杜鲁门——连曼哈顿计划这样的事情罗斯福都对他保密——被迫想办法处理他以前根本不知道的原子弹。
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To someone growing up today, I would suggest that such a world is literally incomprehensible.
对今天成长起来的人来说,我估计那样的世界几乎无法想象。
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That would never happen again.
那样的事不会再发生。
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That will never happen again.
它绝对不会再发生。
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But if you want to understand why things happened the way they did in the 20th century, anything from why are conspiracy theories so popular now to why did so many bad bishops cover up sexual abuse for so long, you have to understand that mindset of putting trust in elite institutions and institutions protecting their image by sweeping all problems under the rug.
但如果你想明白二十世纪的事情为何会那样发展——从今天为什么阴谋论如此盛行,到为什么那么多糟糕的主教长时间掩盖性侵丑闻——你就必须了解那种心态:把信任交给精英机构,而这些机构为了维护形象,把所有问题都扫到地毯下面。
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This, of course, leads to the downfall of trust in elite institutions.
这样一来,信任精英机构的观念自然就崩塌了。
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You have things from Watergate to the sexual abuse scandal that start to undermine, start to crack the sort of public trust in those institutions.
从水门事件到性侵丑闻,各种事件开始蚕食、瓦解公众对这些机构的信任。
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But honestly, what changes this in a profound way is not this or that scandal, because this is a decline in trust in institutions that we see across the world, regardless of government, regardless of, uh, religion, regard- uh, uh, d- despite all of those things, we find declining levels of trust for elite institutions outside of dictatorships, where I think it's fair to say maybe trust levels are lower than people are willing to say publicly.
但说实话,真正带来深刻改变的并不是某一桩丑闻,因为我们在全世界都看到对机构信任的下降,无论政体、宗教背景如何——在独裁政权之外,人们对精英机构的信任程度都在下降,只是他们公开说出来的数字可能还不够低。
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But what accounts for that bigger shift then?
那么,究竟是什么导致了这种更大的转变?
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'Cause it isn't You can't just blame Watergate for people having less trust in the French government.
因为……你不能把法国人对本国政府信任下降全怪在水门事件上。
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You can't blame the sex abuse scandal for people having less trust in the scientific establishment.
人们对科学机构信任下降,也不能都怪性侵丑闻。
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What's really going on?
真正的原因是什么?
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Well, Martin Gurri, uh, suggests a pretty convincing version.
嗯,Martin Gurri 提出了一个相当有说服力的解释。
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I don't think this is the full story, but I think this is a major part of it.
我不认为这就是全部,但这应该是很重要的一部分。
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He's a former CIA analyst, and in his book, The Revolt of the Public, he wants to know what changed and why, and he's following world events.
他曾是 CIA 的分析员,在他的著作《公众的反叛》中,他想弄清楚发生了什么变化、为什么会变,并且持续关注全球事件。
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All across the world, he's seen, you know, revolutions and everything pop up, and he's predicting that this is going to happen.
在世界各地,他看到革命等现象接连出现,并预测这种情况还会继续发生。
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That we're going to see this outpouring of things like the Arab Spring, the outpouring of things like populist movements in the US, UK and France, Italy.
也就是说,我们将会目睹阿拉伯之春那样的浪潮,以及美国、英国、法国、意大利等地的民粹运动汹涌而出。
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He sees all of that stuff coming.
他预见到这一切都会到来。
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Because he notices certain trends in data.
因为他在数据里注意到一些趋势。
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Because remember, his job as an analyst was to keep track of what's going on in the world.
要知道,他作为分析员的工作本来就是追踪世界动态。
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And as he puts it, in the early days of his job, he was, um, he came into the CIA during the Reagan administration.
按照他的说法,他在里根政府时期进入 CIA。
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It was a pretty easy job.
那时候这份工作相当轻松。
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There were not a lot of sources of information out there, so you could be well informed on French politics or whatever pretty quickly.
信息来源不多,所以你很快就能对法国政治等情况了如指掌。
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But then around the turn of the century, something major happens.
但到了世纪之交,出现了重大变化。
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In his book, he references this UC Berkeley study that finds that if you look at all of the information stored on paper, film, optical and magnetic media, that if you were to trace all of that up to about the year 2000, just have that be, like, one unit, it basically doubles in size over the course of about three years, from 1999 to 2002.
在书中,他引用了加州大学伯克利分校的一项研究:如果把存储在纸张、胶片、光学和磁性媒介上的全部信息累积到2000年算作一个单位,那么在1999到2002这三年里,其总量就翻了一番。
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The amount of world information doubles, and then it doubles again, and it just is off at this kind of exponential curve.
全球信息量先翻倍,然后再翻倍,呈现出指数级增长曲线。
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That kind of digital tsunami, as he puts it, or information tsunami, radically changes things, because it means we no longer have to go to, you know, the institutions we formerly trusted to find out what to think about a certain issue.
这种他称为「数字海啸」「信息海啸」的现象彻底改变了局面,因为这意味着我们不必再去以前信任的机构听他们告诉我们该如何看待某个问题。
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So if you think about the impact that the printing press had on the authority of the Catholic Church, people could now say, I'm just gonna take the Bible and read it for myself and see what I think it says.
就像当年印刷术对公教会权威的冲击一样,人们可以说:「我自己拿《圣经》来读,看看它到底讲什么。」
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We have an equivalent version of that when it comes to what I think about world events, what I think about medicine, what I think about fill in the blank.
如今在世界大事、医学乃至任何领域,人们都有类似的「自己来读」的选择。
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Here's how Martin Gurri kind of explains.
下面是 Martin Gurri 的大致说明。
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Now, uh, I will warn you, this is, I guess, about a minute and a half long clip.
先提醒一下,这段音频大概有一分钟半。
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I don't normally go that long, but I think he does a better job than I could of explaining the impacts of the information tsunami, of leading to the downfall of trust in institutions and really paving the way for things like conspiracy theories to take hold.
我通常不会放这么长的片段,但他比我更能说明信息海啸如何导致机构信任崩塌、为阴谋论之类的东西铺路。
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You have to understand the great institutions of the 21st century, government, media and so forth, received their shape in the 20th.
你得明白,21世纪的主要机构——政府、媒体等等——是在20世纪定型的。
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That was the heyday of the top-down, I talk, you listen model of organizing humanity.
那是自上而下「我说你听」这种组织模式的黄金时代。
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It turns out that for this model to be tolerated as legitimate, it has to enjoy a, a, a semi-monopoly over information .
事实证明,要让这种模式被视为合法,它必须在信息上拥有某种半垄断。
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In every domain.
在各个领域都是如此。
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You remember what I said about my early days i- in CIA. Information was scarce.
还记得我说过我在 CIA 早期的经历吗?那时候信息非常稀缺。
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Hence, it was extremely valuable.
因此信息极其珍贵。
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The institutions that, uh, controlled the flow of information, uh, were vested with authority.
那些控制信息流通的机构就被赋予了权威。
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They could tell ordinary persons, top down, what the important public issues were, and often, how to think about them.
他们可以自上而下地告诉普通人哪些是重要的公共议题,甚至告诉你该如何思考。
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The information tsunami has simply swept away the legitimacy of this model.
信息海啸彻底冲垮了这种模式的合法性。
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The elites today, uh, who run the system, are, um, totally demoralized, for good reason.
如今掌控体系的精英们士气全无,这是有理由的。
771.64-789.82
They know that their every mistake, their every misjudgment, every failed perception, every failed prediction, every, uh, self, uh, interested act, every sexual escapade will be exposed and talked about endlessly.
他们知道,自己的每一次错误、误判、看走眼、预测失败、自利行为、性丑闻都会被曝光并且被无止境地讨论。
789.88-794.03
Today, elite failure sets the information agenda.
现在,精英的失误反而决定了信息议程。
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And again, we see this erosion of trust in institutions across the world, and not just in the realm of politics.
再次强调,全球范围内的机构信任正在流失,不仅限于政治领域。
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Each year, Edelman, the world's largest public relations firm, puts out what it calls the Edelman Trust Barometer.
全球最大的公关公司 Edelman 每年都会发布所谓的「Edelman 信任晴雨表」。
806.53-811.24
It's an international poll analyzing how much people trust various social institutions.
那是一项国际调查,用来分析人们对各类社会机构的信任程度。
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And what they found is a quarter-century-long decline in institutional trust.
结果发现,机构信任度已经连续下降了四分之一个世纪。
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Now, it might have gone back before that, but they've been looking for a quarter century.
也许下降更早就开始了,但他们只统计了这25年。
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By 2005, they found that people were trusting their peers more than authorities.
到2005年,人们对同侪的信任已经超过对权威的信任。
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And overwhelmingly, across the world, we find that more than two-thirds of respondents today worry that government leaders, business leaders, and actually performing the worst of all, journalists and reporters, purposely mislead people by saying things they know are false or gross exaggerations.
在全球范围内,超过三分之二的受访者担心政府领袖、商界领袖,尤其是表现最差的记者与媒体人,故意用他们明知是假的或严重夸大的说法来误导公众。
842.29-847.12
So, both the government and the media are ranked as simultaneously unethical and incompetent.
于是,政府和媒体被同时评为不道德又无能。
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That's quite a potent combination.
这种双重失格可真够厉害的。
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But again, th- that's not just in the US. Western countries overwhelmingly reported having little trust in government or in the media, and the countries that did perform well, like Saudi Arabia and China, probably did so because people were afraid to publicly criticize the government.
但再说一次,这不仅发生在美国。西方国家普遍表示对政府和媒体信任不高,而表现好的国家,比如沙特阿拉伯和中国,很可能是因为人们害怕公开批评政府。
864.75-876.75
Ironically, the Edelman Trust Barometer was itself part of the problem of decaying institutional elite, uh, credibility when it emerged that Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are Edelman clients.
讽刺的是,当人们发现沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国都是 Edelman 的客户时,这份信任晴雨表本身就成了精英机构公信力衰退的一部分。
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They were paying millions of dollars to the same PR group that is putting together a report saying people in their countries really trust them.
这些国家花了数百万美元给同一家公关公司,而这家公司又发布报告说他们国家的人民非常信任政府。
885.20-888.89
So, trust in elite institutions of any kind is down.
所以,各种精英机构的信任度都在下降。
889.13-892.12
But there's another related problem that we might not have thought about.
但还有一个相关的问题,可能我们没想到。
892.12-900.05
So, in this widespread, fast-paced information economy, it's not just that I can fact-check whatever I read in the news.
在这个信息泛滥、速度飞快的经济环境里,不只是我可以对新闻里的内容立即查证真伪。
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It's not just that scandals are harder to cover up.
也不仅是丑闻更难被掩盖。
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It's also that there is this rush-to-the-press effect.
还有一个「抢先发表」的效应。
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Now, let me explain what I mean.
让我解释一下我的意思。
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Last week, uh, Chris Cilicia, a former CNN correspondent or analyst, uh, took to Twitter, X, whatever we're calling it, to do something extraordinary, to admit that he was wrong and Donald Trump was right about the origins of COVID. Now, I'll tell you right now, I don't know.
上周,前 CNN 记者兼分析员 Chris Cilicia 在 Twitter,也就是现在的 X,上发文做了一件不寻常的事:他承认自己错了,而 Donald Trump 对于 COVID 起源的问题是对的。先声明,我本人并不知道真相。
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I don't know whether COVID originated in a wet market or in a Wuhan laboratory.
我不知道 COVID 是源于海鲜市场还是武汉实验室。
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I've heard good arguments on both sides.
两边的论点我都听过,似乎都有道理。
934.32-939.48
I'm not here to settle that for you, but I am trying to diagnose something that I, I found very striking.
我不是来替你定论的,而是想分析一个我觉得很惊人的现象。
939.48-953.98
And I am not here to beat up on Chris Cilicia for, for doing the humble thing and acknowledging that he'd been too quick to trust the judgment of, uh, the CIA instead of trusting the president on these issues.
我也不是来嘲讽 Chris Cilicia;他谦虚地承认自己过于轻信 CIA 的判断,没有信总统,这一点我不批评。
953.98-957.10
Of course, he's also trusting people like Dr. Anthony Fauci.
当然,他还信任像 Dr. Anthony Fauci 这样的人。
957.24-965.63
But what's striking about this is Cilicia kind of realizes, Oh, okay, the problem here was nobody knew what they were talking about.
但令人震惊的是,Cilicia 意识到:「哦,问题在于根本没人知道自己在说什么。」
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Remember, the twofold finding of people in 2020, i- in, for the last five years, is that their governments are both corrupt and incompetent.
记得吗?过去五年,尤其是2020年,人们得出的双重结论是:他们的政府既腐败又无能。
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Not just corrupt, but good at their job, but, like, they're actually bad at their jobs as well.
不仅腐败,而且工作也做不好。
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So, in the midst of that, what I think a lot of people are reacting to is there were no COVID-19 experts in 2020.
因此,我认为很多人的反应是:2020年根本没有所谓的 COVID-19 专家。
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There just weren't.
真的没有。
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No one had been around long enough working with it to be an expert in it.
没人接触这病毒够久,能成为专家。
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And so even the expert class was new to it.
所以连专家群体本身对它也很陌生。
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They were novices as well.
他们也只是新手。
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They were more knowledgeable novices, sure.
当然,他们是更有知识的新手。
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But the problem was a lot of the things they were saying turned out to be wrong.
但问题在于,他们说的很多话后来被证明是错的。
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Sometimes perhaps intentionally, you know, lying to people about the efficacy of masks when there was a mask shortage.
有时可能是故意的,比如在口罩短缺时谎称口罩没用。
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Sometimes unintentionally, just because the information is changing at a fast pace.
有时则是无意的,因为信息迭代速度太快。
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But as a result, you have elite institutions saying things wrong and journalists saying things wrong, and fact-checking when they don't have the facts in real time.
于是,精英机构说错话,记者说错话,而事实核查却无法实时掌握事实。
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But related to this So, he's recognizing this problem, like, Okay, everything was too new and so we couldn't get our facts straight.
但与此相关的是——他认识到这个问题:「好吧,一切都太新了,我们无法理清事实。」
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Now, it, it is striking.
这点确实耐人寻味。
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He changes his opinion basically because the CIA spokesman announced that the CIA had changed its opinion.
他之所以改变看法,基本上是因为 CIA 发言人宣布 CIA 自己改了口径。
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So, he's still trusting in the elite institutions, but he's showing why a lot of people don't.
也就是说,他依旧信任精英机构,但他同时揭示了为什么许多人不再信。
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And he's showing why that is kind of eroded.
他展示了这种信任是如何被侵蚀的。
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Because that rush to judgment, which all of us kind of dealt with during the days of COVID, where we had to make a spur-of-the-moment sort of decision, How seriously do I take this?
因为那种仓促下的判断——在 COVID 爆发期间我们都经历过——迫使我们临时决定「我该多认真对待这件事?」
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What's the nature of this virus?
这个病毒到底是什么性质?
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Et cetera, when none of us had a ton of information about it, led a lot of people, both experts and people online, to make brazen, often false kind of claims.
等等,当时我们对它信息寥寥,这让许多人——专家也好,网民也好——大胆地发表了常常错误的断言。
1073.84-1077.49
I'm not meaning to bash the elites or the scientists or any of that.
我并不是要抨击精英阶层、科学家或任何人。
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I'm meaning to say there was a pretty limited amount of evidence, and evidence was coming in very quickly, and people were having to adjust on the fly.
我要说的是,当时证据十分有限,而且信息更新极快,人们只能边走边调整。
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I give that actually more of an analogy for the way news in general works, because we often don't think about it this way.
我把这更多当成一个类比,用来说明新闻运作的方式,因为我们往往不会这样思考。
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When there is breaking news It used to be you had often much of a day to go and figure out all the facts, and then put your story together, and then it might make it to the morning paper.
过去一旦有突发新闻,记者往往有大半天去核实所有事实,再写好报道,第二天见报。
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Right now, you often are in a rush of minutes because if you're trying to release something online, if you're a journalist who is, you know, trying to get the clicks.
如今,如果你想把消息发到网上,作为追求点击量的记者,常常只能争分夺秒。
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Because if you wait too long, if you spend two hours fact-checking to make sure all of your T's are crossed and all of your I's dotted, somebody else has scooped it.
因为如果你花两个小时去核实每个细节,别人早就抢先发布了。
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Somebody else has already gotten in there, they've gotten all the clicks, and your story is now a footnote.
别人已经捷足先登,拿走所有点击,你的稿子只剩一条脚注。
1130.72-1132.14
You're not getting the ad revenue.
你拿不到广告收入。
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You're not getting the traffic.
你也拿不到流量。
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You're not getting the reputation.
你得不到口碑。
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And so there is this very difficult-to-overcome problem where there is a huge impetus to try to respond quickly.
因此,就出现了一个难以克服的问题:巨大的动力逼着人们迅速回应。
1141.64-1153.00
Look, I will say as someone who has a Catholic channel that is in no way breaking daily news, I'm aware that if I can respond quickly to events, people are more likely to want to watch that.
就拿我这个根本不是做每日突发新闻的公教频道来说,我很清楚,只要我能快速回应事件,观众就更愿意观看。
1153.00-1154.82
And I want to make things people want to watch.
而我也想做出大家想看的内容。
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So there's that balance because I don't want to go so quickly that I'm just doing hot takes, right?
所以要保持平衡,我不想快到只剩下随口点评,对吧?
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Because those are often ill-informed and even mistaken, and you might make the situation worse.
因为那种点评往往信息不足,甚至错误,还可能把事情弄得更糟。
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But if you spend four years trying to fact-check something from last week, you're wasting your time because no one's going to care by the time you finish.
但如果你花四年去核实上周的事,那就是浪费时间,因为等你搞定时已经没人关心了。
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So we are in this, this precarious situation that the information economy right now, where there is a massive amount of information coming out, not just to the journalists but to everyone else.
因此,在当前信息经济中,我们处于一个岌岌可危的境地:海量信息涌出,不只是记者,所有人都能获取。
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And the journalists trying to shape stories are grappling with all of this as it comes to mold narratives.
记者们想要塑造故事,就得一边应对这些信息洪流,一边编织叙事。
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That's assuming the absolute best.
这还是在假设最理想的情况下。
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They're still going to make mistakes.
他们仍会犯错。
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And unlike before where their mistakes might have been caught by an editor hours before publication, now it's more likely that mistake is going to be corrected after the fact, leading to less trust in the same news sources because you see them being wrong over and over and over again.
与过去不同,他们的错误以前可能在刊发前被编辑发现,现在更可能是事后才更正,以致你一次又一次看到他们出错,对同一新闻源的信任自然下降。
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But I don't just mean to pick on journalists because this is something I see people doing all the time.
但我并不是只挑记者的毛病,因为我看到大家都这么做。
1216.34-1230.84
The same problem that journalists have of, I wanna respond to that event, and I wanna do so in a timely manner, but I don't know if all the facts are, are correct, you see this online with less carefulness, to put it simply.
记者面临的困境——想及时回应事件,却不知道所有事实是否准确——在网上更加普遍,而且更缺乏谨慎。
1231.26-1247.68
For instance, last week, there was a really tragic case where there was, uh, the airplane collision in Washington, DC. And immediately, like within 24 hours, there was a rumor that one of the pilots was a self-identified transgender, uh, pilot.
例如,上周华盛顿特区发生一起悲剧性的飞机相撞事故,结果不到二十四小时就有谣言称其中一名飞行员是跨性别者。
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And, and this was clearly malicious, bad faith.
显然这纯属恶意捏造。
1250.68-1254.14
There was no evidence supporting this, but they named someone's name.
没有任何证据,他们却指名道姓。
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And this person had to go on the news to be like, No, I'm not dead.
那个人不得不在新闻里澄清:我没死。
1258.00-1260.28
I was not involved in an air collision accident.
我并未卷入那起空难。
1260.58-1264.54
That is malicious and cruel, whoever originated that.
不管是谁编出这种谣言,都既恶毒又残忍。
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And you can see the kind of rush to publication or rush to judgment that ordinary people engage in, in spreading that kind of false story.
你可以看到普通人在传播这类假故事时的仓促与妄下断语。
1276.62-1283.70
The other thing that this To add one more kind of reason why we've got this is there's what's called confirmation bias.
再补充一点原因:这还与所谓的确认偏误有关。
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So at this point, anytime I watch a football game, I know that after I go online, I'm going to hear the losing team explain why it was not that the other team was better, it was that the referees were the problem.
现在,每当我看橄榄球比赛,上网后就会看到输球方解释:并非对方更强,而是裁判有问题。
1297.92-1300.44
Now, to be clear, referees are imperfect.
当然,裁判并不完美。
1300.80-1305.10
And now we have a bunch of cameras doing replay after the fact.
现在又有大量摄像机可以回放。
1305.10-1312.00
And sure enough, you can find times where the slow-motion camera captured something that a human eye doesn't in real time.
的确,你能在慢动作里发现肉眼实时看不到的细节。
1312.78-1317.68
So technology has given you access where you can see a mistake someone made in real time.
科技让你能实时看到别人犯的错误。
1317.98-1327.06
But then this gets added with, Therefore it must be a malicious conspiracy against my team and, you know, my team only, or in favor of the other team and the other team only.
但随后就被解读成:这一定是针对我方球队的恶意阴谋,或者偏袒对方球队的阴谋。
1327.44-1328.72
We're gonna talk about football one more time.
我们还要再谈一次橄榄球。
1328.84-1330.06
I'm just warning you.
先提醒一下。
1330.36-1333.22
But I just mention this to say there's this complicated set of things.
我提这一点只是想说明,这里因素错综复杂。
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There are real reasons why elite institutions have deserved to have an erosion of trust in them.
精英机构的公信力被侵蚀确实有其自身原因。
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People trusted them too much in the past, and they often abused that trust.
过去人们信任他们过头,他们却常滥用这种信任。
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But second, we also have a media landscape where falsehood can flourish because it takes longer to combat the lie than it does to spread the lie.
其次,我们的媒体环境使谎言易于蔓延,因为辟谣所需时间远长于造谣。
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And third, lies are often really appealing because they appeal to us at the level of confirmation bias because they tell us, You know, you're the good guys, the other side's the bad guys.
第三,谎言之所以诱人,是因为它迎合我们的确认偏误,告诉我们:你是好人,对方是坏人。
1363.48-1376.36
Whether it's the refs, the other team, the other party, whatever it is, we can be very prone to buying into narratives that, yes, the other side is They're bad and they're malicious and they're doing all this bad stuff on purpose.
无论是裁判、对方球队还是另一政党,我们都容易相信这样的叙事:对方坏透了,充满恶意,所做一切坏事都是故意的。
1376.86-1379.32
And that can be a really a- appealing kind of narrative.
这种叙事确实非常吸引人。
1379.42-1388.18
It can also be a really appealing narrative just to think, Even if there's a malicious actor, at least all of this is well orchestrated and under control.
还有一种同样诱人的想法是:即使有人作恶,至少一切都在预谋之中、受控之下。
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So, those are good and bad reasons conspiracy theories flourish.
以上就是阴谋论盛行的种种好坏理由。
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When do we need to worry about them?
那么我们什么时候该担心它们?
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When do they become evil?
它们什么时候会变得恶劣?
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I wanna give an example of, of kind of an egregious and fairly well-known one that I think when you watch it again, is striking for another reason, and you'll see why.
我想举一个恶劣且相当著名的例子,再次观看时会因另一原因令人震惊,你们马上会明白。
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This is the Pizzagate scandal.
这就是「披萨门」事件。
1412.30-1422.30
One of the big surprises of the presidential campaign was the explosion of fake news on the internet, fantastic tales that some believed to be true.
总统竞选期间的一大惊讶是互联网上虚假新闻的爆炸式增长,这些离奇故事竟被一些人当真。
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So that's from eight years ago.
那是八年前的报道。
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Can you imagine someone saying that one of the big surprises in presidential politics is that people are saying things that aren't true online?
你能想象有人会说「总统政治的一大惊喜是网上有人说假话」吗?
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I mean, that is what Gurry is talking about when he says that the elite institutions of the 20th century simply have no idea how to operate in the 21st century.
这正是 Gurri 所说的:二十世纪的精英机构在二十一世纪根本不知道如何运作。
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Like, that should not be a surprise in 2016 any more than it should be a surprise today.
在 2016 年,人们不该对此感到惊讶,如今更不该。
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But please continue.
但请继续看下去。
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28-year-old Edgar Welch was arrested in Washington Sunday afternoon outside Comet Ping Pong, a popular family pizza parlor.
28 岁的 Edgar Welch 周日下午在华盛顿一家受家庭欢迎的披萨店 Comet Ping Pong 门外被捕。
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DC police say Welch fired at least one round into the restaurant floor with an AR-15 rifle like this one on his Facebook page.
华盛顿警方称,Welch 使用与他脸书照片中相同型号的 AR-15 步枪向餐馆地板至少开了一枪。
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No one was injured.Police say Welch drove all the way from North Carolina to self-investigate Pizzagate, a fictitious online conspiracy theory.
无人受伤。警方表示,Welch 从北卡罗来纳州驱车而来,打算自行「调查」网路上的虚构阴谋论「披萨门」。
1474.65-1494.86
Pizzagate started on the internet shortly before Election Day, when right-wing sites that make up fake news spread rumors that Hillary Clinton was involved in a child sex trafficking ring in D.C. Court documents say Welch read online that the Comet Restaurant was harboring child sex slaves, and he was armed to help rescue them.
披萨门在选举日前不久于网络出现,一些制造假新闻的右翼网站散布谣言,说希拉里·克林顿涉入华盛顿特区的儿童性贩卖集团。法院文件显示,Welch 在网上读到 Comet 餐厅藏有儿童性奴,于是携枪前来「救人」。
1495.04-1500.52
He surrendered peacefully when he found no evidence that underage children were being harbored in the restaurant.
当他发现餐馆里根本没有未成年人被囚禁时,他和平投降。
1500.68-1502.38
So that was a particularly ugly one.
这件事特别恶劣。
1502.43-1518.46
A guy goes in armed, ready to apparently engage in violent acts to try to liberate kids who are allegedly being kept in sex trafficking, uh, basically imprisonment, in the basement of a pizza shop that turns out not to have even had a basement in the first place.
一个人携枪闯入,准备通过暴力解救据称被囚禁在披萨店地下室、遭受性贩卖的儿童,结果那家店根本连地下室都没有。
1518.91-1520.84
That's alarming, that's concerning.
这既令人警醒,也令人担忧。
1521.02-1526.82
But honestly, the chief danger of conspiracy theories, in my view, isn't that you're likely to commit acts of violence.
但说实话,在我看来,阴谋论最大的危险并不在于你很可能去实施暴力行为。
1526.82-1529.02
Statistically, it's just very unlikely.
从统计上看,这种情况极少发生。
1529.43-1533.76
It's very rare someone writ- who believes these theories acts on them in a violent way.
真正因为阴谋论而采取暴力行动的人极为罕见。
1534.23-1541.04
What is more likely to happen and is still tremendously dangerous is the spiritual damage.
更常见也同样危险的是属灵上的损害。
1541.19-1552.52
The spiritual damage that you're doing to yourself and to your neighbor when you baselessly believe and publicly accuse your neighbor of committing some gravely sinful act like murder.
当你毫无根据地相信并公开指控邻舍犯下谋杀等严重罪行时,你对自己和对方都造成了属灵伤害。
1552.84-1554.76
That is itself gravely sinful.
这本身就是重罪。
1555.26-1559.93
And that's true even if it turns out your neighbor is a politician or a world leader.
即便你的邻舍是政治人物或世界领袖,这一点也成立。
1560.28-1575.89
You don't get the right to just publicly, casually, baselessly accuse people of grave evils like murder, like assassinating JFK, like orchestrating 9/11 just because you happen to dislike them and because they happen to be a public figure.
你无权仅仅因为不喜欢对方或对方是公众人物,就随意、毫无根据地公开指控他们犯下谋杀、刺杀肯尼迪或策划 9·11 之类的大罪。
1576.21-1578.95
So make no mistake, like this is sinful behavior.
别搞错了,这种行为就是罪。
1578.95-1592.34
If you indulge in this, if you're sharing these kind of malicious stories, even if you personally bet that they're true, if you have no basis to believe that they're true, you are sinning in believing it and spreading it.
如果你沉溺其中,传播这些恶意故事,即便你私下坚信它们是真的,但你没有证据,那你在相信和传播时就是在犯罪。
1592.34-1601.32
And the Catechism is completely clear on that, and it's rooted very clearly in what scripture says about the respect we owe to our neighbor and how we think and speak of them.
《公教会教理》对此说得非常清楚,这也明显根植于圣经关于我们应尊重邻舍、如何思想和谈论他们的教导。
1601.45-1612.26
So in Ephesians 4, Saint Paul tells us, Therefore, putting away falsehood, let everyone speak the truth with his neighbor, for we are members one of another.
保罗在以弗所书四章二十五节说:『所以你们要弃绝谎言,各人与邻舍说实话,因为我们是互相为肢体。』
1612.34-1621.97
That we owe a certain respect to our neighbor for the sake of truth and for the sake of our common membership one of another.
我们为了真理,也为了彼此同为一体,欠邻舍相应的尊重。
1622.02-1623.93
We are members of the same human family.
我们都是人类大家庭的成员。
1624.08-1627.58
And if this is another baptized person, we are members of the body of Christ.
如果对方也是受洗的人,那我们更是基督身体上的肢体。
1627.58-1629.95
We should be treating each other better than this.
我们理当彼此更好相待。
1630.45-1639.13
The Catechism, in talking about this, in paragraph 2477, says that, The respect for the reputation of persons So that's the legitimate.
《教理》在第 2477 段谈到:尊重他人名誉……这是正当的。
1639.13-1643.63
There's a, a bad thing called respect for persons where you treat the elite better than you treat your other neighbor.
当然,也有一种错误的「看人脸色」,就是你对精英另眼相看,却轻视普通邻舍。
1643.91-1644.52
That's bad.
那是不对的。
1644.86-1658.38
But there's a legitimate respect for persons that Saint Paul is talking about in Ephesians 4. So, Respect for the reputation of persons forbids every attitude and word likely to cause them injury, and it gives a couple examples of related sin.
但保罗在以弗所书四章讲的是正当的尊重。《教理》说:尊重他人的名誉,禁止一切可能伤害他们的态度和言语,并列举了几种相关的罪。
1658.38-1668.12
So, You become guilty of the sin of rash judgment if you even tacitly assume as true, without sufficient foundation, the moral fault of a neighbor.
如果你在没有足够依据的情况下,哪怕只是默许地把邻舍的道德过失当成事实,你就犯了『轻率论断』的罪。
1668.54-1672.34
And again, this is true even if your neighbor is famous.
再次强调,即便你的邻舍是名人,这条原则也适用。
1672.54-1678.71
It doesn't suddenly become okay to assume their moral fault without a sufficient foundation.
没有充足证据就断定他们有道德过失,并不会因为他们成名就合理化。
1678.76-1682.02
And that sufficient foundation cannot just be that you don't like them.
所谓『充足证据』不能只是你不喜欢他们。
1682.28-1686.63
It cannot just be that they're of a different party or team or whatever.
也不能仅仅因为他们跟你是不同党派、不同队伍或其他。
1686.69-1689.19
You need something more than that.
你需要更扎实的根据。
1689.19-1704.63
You are guilty of the sin of calumny, paragraph 2477 goes on to say, when by remarks contrary to the truth, you harm the reputation of others and give occasion of false judgments concerning them.
教理 2477 段接着说:当你用与事实不符的言论损害他人名誉,并让他人对其产生错误判断时,你就犯了『毁谤』的罪。
1704.63-1710.95
So if you're spreading this, not only are you guilty of rash judgment, you're separately guilty of the sin of calumny.
所以,如果你传播这些内容,不仅犯了轻率论断,还另犯毁谤之罪。
1710.95-1718.26
You are lying about the other person even if you think you're telling the truth, because you didn't have a basis for that belief.
即便你自以为在讲真话,实际上你在撒谎,因为你并无相信它的依据。
1718.52-1723.49
You are spreading things that are untrue and that are harmful to someone else's reputation.
你传播的不实之词损害了他人的名誉。
1723.80-1729.21
That is sinful, and we should stop treating it like it's not.
这是罪,我们不该再装作这没问题。
1731.89-1739.38
As the Catechism goes on to say in paragraph 2479, Detraction and calumny destroy the reputation and honor of one's neighbor.
教理在 2479 段继续说:揭人短处和毁谤会摧毁邻舍的名誉与尊严。
1739.58-1746.15
Like, you don't need to look far to see people whose lives have been destroyed by malicious falsehoods spread about them on social media.
你不用费劲就能看到,有人在社交媒体上被恶意谣言毁掉了人生。
1746.15-1757.54
Honor is the social witness given to human dignity, and everyone enjoys a natural right to the honor of his name and reputation and to respect.
荣誉是社会对人类尊严的见证,每个人都享有自己的姓名与名誉得到尊重的天赋权利。
1757.93-1763.65
Thus, detraction and calumny offend against the virtues of justice and charity.
因此,搬弄是非和毁谤冒犯了公义与仁爱的德行。
1764.60-1765.65
So we're not playing around here.
所以这可不是闹着玩的。
1765.65-1778.15
These are serious sins that we should take as serious sins, and it is no defense to these sins that you personally believe these things to be true, unless you can also show why that belief is reasonable.
这些都是严重的罪,我们就该当成严重的罪来看待。除非你能说明自己的信念合理,否则「我相信是真的」不能作为辩护。
1781.30-1785.73
James, Saint James, in James chapter 3 describes it like this.
圣雅各在雅各书三章这样描述。
1785.80-1790.41
He says, If we put bits into the mouths of horses that they may obey us, we guide their whole bodies.
他写道:『我们若把嚼环放在马口里,叫它顺服,就能调动它的全身。』
1790.91-1792.32
Then he says, Look at ships also.
接着他说:『再看船只,』
1792.82-1798.82
Though they're so great and are driven by strong winds, they're guided by a very small rudder wherever the will of the pilot directs.
『那极大的船只被大风催逼,只用小小的舵,就随着掌舵的意思转动。』
1798.88-1803.02
So the tongue is a little member and boasts of great things.
『这样,舌头也是个小肢体,却能说大话。』
1803.23-1806.58
How great a forest is set ablaze by a small fire?
『看哪,最小的火能点着最大的树林!』
1806.97-1809.84
Sorry to Californians who that might be triggering for.
这话可能会触动加州的朋友,抱歉。
1810.06-1816.10
The point there is very simple, that your tongue, small part of your body, it can do some of the worst damage.
意思很简单:舌头虽小,却能造成最大的伤害。
1816.63-1834.96
And so you should treat it as seriously as the captain of a ship would treat the rudder, uh, as seriously as, you know, an equestrian would, would treat the horse, in terms of putting, uh, the bridle or bit into the mouth of the horse to guide him.James goes on to say, The tongue is a fire.
所以你应当像船长对待舵、骑手给马配嚼环那样严肃对待舌头。雅各继续说:『舌头就是火。』
1835.62-1842.90
The tongue is an unrighteous world among our members, staining the whole body, setting on fire the cycle of nature, and set on fire by Hell.
『舌头在我们百体中是个罪恶的世界,能污秽全身,也能把生命的轮子点起来,并且是从地狱里点着的。』
1843.22-1853.56
For every kind of beast and bird, if reptile and sea creature can be tamed and has been tamed by humankind, but no human being can tame the tongue, a restless evil full of deadly poison.
『各类走兽、飞禽、昆虫、水族,本来都可以制伏,也已经被人制伏了;惟独舌头没有人能制伏,是不止息的恶物,满了害死人的毒气。』
1854.02-1861.19
Now, obviously he's not literally saying your tongue is evil, but he's pointing you to the fact that this is where a lot of evil is coming from.
他当然不是说舌头本身邪恶,而是指出许多恶由此而来。
1861.65-1864.02
How are you speaking about other people?
你是怎样谈论别人的?
1864.82-1870.76
And so this is something that I think we have not given the spiritual attention that it deserves.
我认为我们没有给予这件事应有的属灵重视。
1871.08-1878.12
James goes on to say, With it, the tongue, we bless the Lord and Father, and with it we curse men who are made in the likeness of God.
雅各接着说:『我们用舌头颂赞那为主为父的,又用舌头咒诅那照着神形像被造的人。』
1878.62-1881.86
From the same mouth come blessing and cursing.
『颂赞和咒诅从一个口里出来。』
1881.94-1885.71
My brethren, this ought not to be so.
『我的弟兄们,这是不应当的!』
1886.49-1887.56
And that's what I would say as well.
我也要这样说。
1887.60-1890.45
Like, hey, stop being okay with this.
请不要再对此无动于衷。
1890.47-1891.63
This is something that you're doing.
如果这是你正在做的事,
1891.63-1893.78
Stop doing it.
赶快停止。
1894.21-1895.63
I've been guilty of this myself.
我自己也曾犯过这样的罪。
1895.63-1907.28
I'm not trying to point the finger at people I haven't been, uh, guilty of the same sin of, but I am saying I think this is an area where we are just not focusing on how serious of a fault this is.
我不是要指责别人而自己毫无过错;我的意思是,我们对这问题的严重性关注太少。
1907.63-1911.06
And we treat it as this kind of like a, Oh, that's my wacky friend.
我们常把它当成「啊,那是我古怪的朋友」轻描淡写。
1911.06-1912.88
He just has some weird conspiracy theories.
他只是有些奇怪的阴谋论。
1912.88-1913.99
It's like, no.
其实不是。
1914.28-1926.08
If those weird conspiracy theories involve publicly accusing people of evil things, and even indulging in my heart that I'm convinced that you committed some horrible crime that you didn't commit, that is not spiritually neutral.
如果那些阴谋论涉及公开指控他人作恶,甚至让我心里坚信你犯了根本没犯的可怕罪行,那绝不是属灵上中立的。
1926.08-1927.78
That is not harmless.
那并非无害。
1927.93-1932.38
That is detrimental to my soul and to your honor.
那有害于我的灵魂,也损害你的荣誉。
1933.73-1936.86
So how can we fight sinful conspiracy theories?
那么,我们如何对抗有罪的阴谋论?
1936.86-1939.04
And I mean here in both senses.
我的意思涵盖两个层面。
1939.08-1946.91
Like, how do I fight them in my own life, and then how can we confront them if we see someone we love kind of going down that rabbit trail?
一是自己如何抵抗,二是当看到所爱的人陷入这条歧路时,怎样与之交锋?
1947.38-1948.84
It's a tricky question to answer.
这问题不好回答。
1948.84-1952.06
I'm gonna answer the second part at first.
我先回答第二部分。
1952.06-1955.69
Then I'll, y- you know, look at it both for us and for people we love.
然后再同时考虑我们自己和所爱的人。
1955.89-1965.91
So Blaise Pascal, in the Pensées, uh, gives advice, and I, I know I quote this a lot, because I love this and this is a good guide for how to fix any problem you see in your neighbor.
布莱兹·帕斯卡在《思想录》中给了一个建议,我经常引用,因为我很喜欢,它是解决你在邻舍身上看到任何问题的好指南。
1966.80-1972.78
He says, When we wish to correct with advantage and to show another that he errs, we must first notice Excuse me.
他写道:『当我们想要有效地纠正并让对方知道他错了时,我们必须先注意……』抱歉,继续。
1972.78-1979.71
We must notice from what side he views the matter, for on that side it is usually true, and admit that truth to him.
『……必须注意他是从哪个角度看问题,因为在那个角度上通常有其真实之处,并且要向他承认这一点。』
1979.97-1985.52
So you'll notice the first thing we have to do is understand what drew him to this theory in the first place.
所以,首先我们要弄清楚是什么最初把他吸引到这种理论里。
1986.47-1994.62
And seca- It doesn't mean you have to go way down the rabbit trail yourself, but maybe there is something that seems unsatisfactory about the official account.
其次,这并不意味着你要自己深陷兔子洞,但也许官方说法确实有让人不满意的地方。
1994.62-2000.02
Maybe, you know, to take a benign example, ah, maybe that was a bad call the ref made.
举个无害的例子,也许裁判确实判错了。
2000.10-2003.67
I don't have to go down a rabbit trail of assuming the absolute worst about him.
我不必因此走向假设裁判蓄意作恶的极端。
2003.84-2005.34
Maybe he made a mistake.
或许他只是犯了错。
2005.65-2011.99
But if I can't acknowledge that maybe a mistake was made or maybe the official account seems incomplete, then we're unlikely to get very far.
但如果我连「可能有错」或「官方说法不完整」都无法承认,我们就很难推进对话。
2011.99-2020.65
Like, there's a reason I began this video by explaining the decline of trust in elite institutions is in no small part the fault of elite institutions.
这也是我开头就说明:人们对精英机构信任下降,很大程度上是这些机构自己的错。
2021.08-2030.02
Because so often when I hear people combating conspiracy theories, they don't acknowledge that conspiracy theories are responding to something real.
因为我常听到人们反击阴谋论,却并不承认阴谋论是在回应真实问题。
2030.30-2032.47
And as a result, it misses the mark.
结果就打偏了。
2032.47-2042.60
Because if I know, okay, these elite institutions have lied to me numerous times, and I've seen them lie to me, I've seen them get caught in a lie, why would you tell me I have to blindly trust them?
因为如果我知道这些精英机构多次对我撒谎,并被抓包,我为什么还要盲目信任他们?
2042.86-2044.91
And to be clear, I'm not telling you you have to blindly trust them.
说清楚,我并不是叫你盲信他们。
2045.32-2050.28
I am telling you you can't wildly accuse them of, you know, sins and crimes.
我只是说,你不能肆意指控他们犯下各种罪行。
2050.41-2053.05
But that doesn't mean you have to blindly trust everything they say.
但这也不代表你必须盲目信一切官方说法。
2053.22-2063.70
But notice you have to first If you're going to address someone who's down that rabbit trail, you gotta see where they're coming from, and you have to affirm to them the stuff that they're getting wrecked.
不过请注意:如果你要帮助陷入阴谋论的人,首先得理解他们的出发点,并肯定他们所观察到的那些真实问题。
2064.20-2067.93
If you want to have any success, you gotta start there.
想取得任何成效,就必须从这里开始。
2068.07-2071.28
Then you reveal to them the part that they're missing.
然后再向他们指出他们忽略的部分。
2072.61-2078.80
Blaise Pascal says he's satisfied with that, for he sees that he was not mistaken, that he only failed to see all sides.
布莱兹·帕斯卡说,他对此感到满意,因为他明白自己并没有搞错,只是没有看到事情的所有面向。
2078.99-2086.39
Now, in this case, there might actually be a false conclusion, but it m- they might be onto something, and you can get that something that they're onto.
当然,在这种情况下,对方的结论可能确实是错的,但他们也许抓住了某些要点,而你可以先肯定他们抓住的那部分。
2086.80-2095.07
And that gives them more intellectual space to realize, oh, okay, maybe I got this part right and that part wrong.
这样就会给他们更大的思考空间,让他们意识到:哦,好吧,可能我这部分对了,那部分错了。
2095.34-2100.64
Because no one's offended at not seeing everything, but one does not like to be mistaken.
因为没人会因自己没看全而不高兴,但人人都不喜欢被说成错。
2101.95-2107.16
So again, remember, that's why I, I broke the conspiracy theory kind of formula down in three parts.
所以再提醒一次,这就是我把阴谋论拆成三层的原因。
2107.16-2110.14
Number one, disbelieving the official or popular version of events.
第一,不相信官方或大众版本的说法。
2110.16-2111.11
That's often right.
这往往是对的。
2111.59-2115.57
Often, the official version is inaccurate or at least incomplete.
官方版本常常不准确,或者至少不完整。
2116.01-2120.07
More problematic is when you jump from that to saying it was done on purpose.
更棘手的是,你从这里直接跳到「这是故意为之」的结论。
2120.07-2122.55
Sometimes, sure, but other times it's not.
有时候确实如此,但很多时候并不是。
2122.55-2127.36
We don't have to jump to number two and assume that this was an intentional coverup.
我们没必要一下跳到第二层,假设这是蓄意掩盖。
2127.74-2135.07
And then jumping from there to number three, that if it's a coverup, it must be because of X, Y, Z, that should be a pretty hard stop.
再从那里跳到第三层——既然是掩盖,那一定是为了某某某——这一步本该刹车。
2135.39-2150.89
Unless you have really good evidence that X, Y, Z is the actual truth, the mere fact that you, you find the official version uncompelling doesn't give you the leeway to make those kind of logical leaps and spiritual judgments.
除非你真有扎实证据证明某某某才是真相,仅仅因为你觉得官方说法不够有力,并不足以让你做那种逻辑跳跃和属灵评断。
2151.76-2160.28
So I'm gonna once more give you the trivial example of the Chiefs and football more broadly.
所以我再拿酋长队和橄榄球的例子来说。
2162.47-2166.97
One way to address the erroneous part of these conspiracy theories is right there in that number three.
应对这些阴谋论错误的一个办法就在第三层。
2166.97-2172.30
When people believe they have the real story, press them on the details.
当人们自认为掌握「真相」时,逼他们说出细节。
2172.55-2181.34
It's very easy for someone to say, Oh, yeah, it's a conspiracy by the refs, or, Jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams, or whatever.
有人随口就能说:「这是裁判的阴谋」或「航空燃油烧不熔钢梁」等等。
2181.41-2187.88
But then when you press them and say, Okay, what exactly is your theory of what happened and why?
但当你追问:「那你具体的理论是什么?发生了什么?为什么?」
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that's when a lot of conspiracy theories start to fall apart in an obvious way.
这时很多阴谋论就会显而易见地崩盘。
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Because they tend to be, number one, overly complicated, number two, involving way too many people, and number three, for really dubious f- kind of motives.
因为它们往往:第一,过于复杂;第二,牵涉的人太多;第三,动机非常可疑。
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So, we're gonna take the Chiefs one because it's, it's tame, it's safe, it's apolitical, but you can apply this in any number of examples.
我们就拿酋长队的例子,因为它温和、安全,不涉政治,但这思路可以套用在很多场景里。
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The popular theory, if you go on the internet right now and just read the comments on any story about the Chiefs winning, which is what they typically do, you'll find people claiming that the refs gave it to them.
上网随便看一篇酋长队获胜的新闻评论,你就会看到有人声称比赛是裁判「送」的。
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And that sounds really good as a generic category, the refs, or if they say, Oh, the NFL wants the Chiefs to win.
把锅甩给「裁判」或说「NFL 想让酋长队赢」听起来好像很顺口。
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Here are the problems with that.
但问题来了。
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Number one, the rules are decided on by the NFL, and specifically by every one of the 32 member teams.
第一,规则是 NFL 制定的,确切地说,是 32 支球队共同决定的。
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So, if you're gonna say the NFL is part of a conspiracy, either because of the rules or the enforcement of the rules, to make sure the Chiefs constantly win, your argument is that 31 other teams are conspiring to lose so that Kansas City can win.
所以,如果你说 NFL 通过规则或执法阴谋让酋长队一直赢,那就等于说另外 31 支球队串通好故意输球成全堪萨斯城。
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Kansas City, not a particularly big market team.
堪萨斯城并不是特别大的市场球队。
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You would think that all of the financial incentives for a team would be to win.
按理说,每支球队最有利可图的就是自己赢球。
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Let their jerseys be sold, let them be in the Super Bowl, let them, you know, inspi- you know, all It just doesn't make a lot of sense when you actually realize that the NFL is a trade association, and that you're accusing the Bills' leadership of sabotaging the Bills when you say the NFL did it.
球衣能多卖,能进超级碗……当你想到 NFL 是个行业联盟,你其实在指控比尔队管理层故意坑自家球队时,这种说法就说不通了。
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It doesn't make a ton of sense.
这实在说不通。
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Well, likewise, the motive for this doesn't make a ton of sense either, because allegedly, Oh, well, of course they're gonna do it, because everyone wants, uh, the Chiefs to be in the Super Bowl, because that'll sell more tickets, and they'll get more viewership or something, because Travis and Taylor, I don't know.
同样,所谓动机也站不住脚。有人说:当然要这么做,因为大家都想让酋长队进超级碗,这样票卖得多、收视率高,Travis 和 Taylor 效应……我不知道。
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But then when you look at the numbers, it's like, oh no, really, there's no evidence.
可一看数据,就发现根本没有证据支持。
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New York Times actually had to do an entire piece on whether there was a Taylor Swift effect on NFL membership, and came to no conclusive, uh, findings.
《纽约时报》甚至写过整篇文章探讨「泰勒·斯威夫特效应」是否影响 NFL 观众群,结果也没得出定论。
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Maybe, but it's just absolutely not clear.
或许有,但完全不确定。
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That's a pretty nebulous motive to commit a pretty serious set of crimes.
要犯下一连串严重罪行,却只有这样模糊的动机,实在说不过去。
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And to be clear, these would be crimes, like r- rigging games is not something you're allowed to do.
明确一点,这的确是犯罪——操纵比赛是违法的。
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I don't care what uninformed people on the internet tell you.
网上那些不了解情况的人怎么说都没用。
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That is the kind of thing that would get you in serious trouble for, again, what appears to be a financial loss for probably 30 to 31 of those teams.
真要这么干,麻烦大了,因为这等于让另外三十来支球队蒙受经济损失。
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And then, by the way, the conspiracy is even bigger than that.
而且阴谋远不止如此。
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Not only are all of the owners apparently in on it, but so are over 100 different referees.
不仅所有老板都参与,连一百多名裁判也都同谋。
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Like, even if you assume the players aren't in on it somehow, everyone around them is in on it, and is keeping really effective tight lips.
即便你假设球员不知情,周围所有人却都参与并且守口如瓶。
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So, I just bring that out to say anyone who tells you the NFL is scripted or that it's rigged does not understand football and doesn't understand, like, the structure of how it works, and is, is sharing a conspiracy theory that, if you press them on, it falls apart like a house of cards.
所以我要说:任何告诉你 NFL 有剧本或被操控的人,其实不懂橄榄球的运作机制,他们传播的阴谋论一经追问就像纸牌屋一样垮掉。
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Now, am I saying that because I'm a Chiefs fan who wants to take more credit for Chiefs wins?
那我这么说是不是因为我是酋长队球迷,想多夸夸球队?
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Absolutely, but also because it's true.
当然有这成分,但也确实是事实。
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There's another way we can go about it.
还有另一种处理方式。
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Besides just dissecting the implausibility of the various conspiracy theories, if it's one you're tempted to entertain yourself, remember these words from the Catechism of the Catholic Church, paragraph 2478.
除了拆穿阴谋论的不合理性外,如果你自己也有点心动,请记住《公教会教理》2478 段的话。
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To avoid rash judgment, everyone should be careful to interpret, insofar as possible, his neighbors' thoughts, words, and deeds, in a favorable way.
「为了避免轻率论断,人人都该尽可能以善意解释邻舍的思想、言语和行为。」
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Now, to be sure, there are times where someone is y- you know, unambiguously being malicious or evil or whatever.
当然,也确实有些时候某人就是明显怀恶意或做坏事。
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Those things happen.
这种事确实存在。
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No one is denying that.
没人否认这一点。
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But what is frequently the case is that the person who's hostile, politically or what other- whatever other way, reads things one way, and the person who is favorable, same party, same group, whatever, interprets things another way, a more charitable way.
但常见的情况是:立场对立的人会这样解读,而立场友好的人则用另一种、更宽厚的方式解读同一件事。
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We should strive for that more charitable interpretation, even if you disagree with the politics of the person you're critiquing.
即便你不同意对方的政治立场,也应努力采取更宽厚的解释。
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You should strive to interpret things, as far as possible, in a favorable way.
你该尽可能用善意去解读事情。
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The Catechism then quotes St. Ignatius of Loyola from his Spiritual Exercises, where he says, Every good Christian ought to be more ready to give a favorable interpretation to another's statement than to condemn it.
教理接着引用圣依纳爵·罗耀拉在《神操》中的话:「每位好基督徒都应当更倾向于给予他人言论善意的解释,而不是急于谴责。」
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But if he cannot do so, let him ask how the other understands it.
「若他无法这样做,就应当询问对方是如何理解自己那句话的。」
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And if the latter understands it badly, let the former correct him with love.
「如果对方的理解确实有问题,就要以爱心加以纠正。」
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If that does not suffice, let the Christian try all suitable ways to bring the other to a correct interpretation so that he may be saved.
「若仍不足够,基督徒还应设法以一切合宜的方式,引导对方得到正确的理解,使他得救。」
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So there, he's thinking about something like, if your neighbor says something that sounds heretical, what should you do?
这里的意思是:如果你的邻舍说了听起来像异端的话,你该怎么做?
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Well, you should try to interpret that in a non-heretical way.
你应该先努力把它朝非异端的方向理解。
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Is there a- a way of saying, you know, could that be read in a Orthodox kind of way?
有没有办法把它解读成合乎正统的意思?
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And if not, what did he mean by it?
如果不行,那他到底想表达什么?
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Maybe he's just m- made a mistake.
或许他只是说错了。
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I don't have to assume a malicious I can assume an ignorant kind of interpretation.
我不必假设他恶意,可以先假设他只是无知。
2504.19-2509.61
And then, is there a way I can address it charitably for his good?
然后,我能不能用仁爱的方式,为他的益处来回应?
2511.23-2520.31
This is related, although the Catechism would never quote this, to what's called Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
这与所谓的 Hanlon 刮刀原则相通,虽然《教理》不会引用它:「能用愚蠢解释的事,别归咎于恶意。」
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So, even if you think, The government screwed that up, or, That account is incomplete, or, The ref made a mistake, or fill in the blank, you don't have to then jump to, They did it on purpose.
所以,即便你认为「政府搞砸了」「说法不完整」「裁判误判」等等,也不必立刻跳到「他们是故意的」这样的结论。
2535.05-2538.31
It's enough to say, That probably shouldn't have happened.
你只要说「这事本不该发生」就够了。
2538.63-2544.25
I don't have to assume bad motives, and I should strive really hard not to assume bad motives.
我不必,也应当努力不去假设恶意动机。
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C.S. Lewis, I'll close with this, Mere Christianity gives a really good spiritual example that I think should, should give us something to chew on as we ponder this.
最后引用 C.S. Lewis 的《纯粹基督教》中的一个好例子,值得我们深思。
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He says, The real test is this.
他说:「真正的考验是这样。」
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Suppose one reads a story of filthy atrocities in the paper.
「假设你在报纸上读到一则骇人听闻的暴行。」
2565.01-2568.52
So-Maybe that's another country that you hate.
「也许那是你憎恶的另一个国家。」
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Means he's giving these words during World War II, so he's even thinking of, like, giving the benefit of the doubt to the Nazis.
那是在二战期间,他甚至想要不要给纳粹一点疑点利益。
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But whatever the case, Suppose one reads the story of filthy atrocities in the paper.
不管怎样,「假设你在报纸上读到暴行的报道。」
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Then suppose that something turns up suggesting that the story might not be quite true, or not quite so bad as it was made out.
「随后出现了一些迹象,暗示报道未必全真,或未必那么糟。」
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Is one's first feeling, 'Thank God, even they aren't quite so bad as that?' Or, is it a feeling of disappointment, and even a determination to cling to the first story for the sheer pleasure of thinking your enemy is as bad as possible?
「你的第一个反应是:感谢神,原来他们没那么坏?还是失望,甚至坚持原来的报道,只因把敌人想得越坏越让你痛快?」
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Like, notice that move.
注意这种心理。
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It feels good to believe that the people who oppose you are moral monsters.
相信对手是道德恶魔,会让人感觉很好。
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It does.
确实如此。
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It shouldn't, but it does.
本不该这样,但事实如此。
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And you have to watch that and resist it internally.
你必须警惕并在心里抵制这种冲动。
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Because believing we don't just have a reasonable disagreement, but they're really horribly wicked bad guys makes me feel better about myself because I oppose them.
因为如果我相信我们之间不只是合理分歧,而是他们极其邪恶,那我因反对他们而自我感觉良好。
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Everyone, regardless of your political affiliation, regardless of your religion, regardless of anything, like, every one of us is prone to that.
无论政治立场、宗教信仰,每个人都容易落入这种心态。
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But you have to watch out for that, and Lewis is gonna tell you why.
但你必须提防这一点,刘易斯会告诉你原因。
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He says, If it's the second step, if, if it's that one where you wanna hold on to the wicked interpretation even when you find reason to believe you shouldn't, then it is, I'm afraid, the first step in a process which, if followed to the end, will make us into devils.
他写道:「如果你走到了第二步——即便发现线索显示不该如此,你仍坚持那邪恶的解读——恐怕这就是一条路的第一步,走到底会使我们变成魔鬼。」
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You see, one is beginning to wish that black was a little blacker.
「你开始期待黑再黑一点。」
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If we give that wish its head, later on we shall wish to see gray as black, and then to see white itself as black.
「若放任这种愿望,后来我们会把灰当黑,甚至把白也当黑。」
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Like, you can see that politically.
政治上你能看到这种现象。
2670.03-2694.14
People who go in for malicious kind of theories about what their political opponents believe and what they're really up to, who really are convinced that they're, you know, child traffickers or Nazis or whatever else, if you really go in for that and you start to think that black is a little blacker, the number of people who get pulled into that orbit seems to get bigger and bigger and bigger.
那些相信政敌是人口贩子、纳粹等恶毒论调的人,一旦觉得「黑再黑些」更带劲,被吸进这个轨道的人就会越来越多。
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And so then it gets to a place where anyone who disagrees with me on anything is a fascist.
于是发展到任何在任何事上不同意我的人都是「法西斯」。
2699.51-2707.01
Anyone who disagrees with me on anything is a totalitarian, or whatever the preferred insult of your group is.
是「极权分子」,或者你群体偏爱的任何污名。
2707.45-2714.51
That's bad, 'cause now not only has black gotten blacker, but gray has gotten blacker, and white becomes black as well.
这很糟,因为不仅黑更黑,灰也变黑,连白也被当成黑。
2714.51-2723.99
Finally, Lewis says, we shall insist on seeing everything, God and our friends and ourselves included, as bad, and not be able to stop doing it.
最后,刘易斯说,我们会坚持把一切——包括神、朋友和自己——都看成坏的,而且停不下来。
2724.20-2728.07
We shall be fixed forever in a universe of pure hatred.
我们最终会永远被困在一个纯粹仇恨的宇宙里。
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That's what I worry about, because there is an authentic conspiracy that we haven't talked about, and that's this.
这就是我担心的,因为确实存在一个我们还没谈过的真正阴谋。
2736.30-2742.20
As St. Paul reminds us in Ephesians 6, Our war is not against flesh and blood.
正如保罗在以弗所书六章十二节提醒我们:「因我们并不是与属血气的争战,乃是与那些执政的、掌权的、管辖这幽暗世界的,以及天空属灵气的恶魔争战。」
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The person you think of as your enemy is not your enemy.
你认为的敌人,其实并不是你的敌人。
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Our war is against powers and principalities.
我们的争战是对抗那些执政的、掌权的。
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There is a conspiracy of demonic forces to tear us apart, to make us more wicked and less loving towards one another.
确实有邪恶势力的阴谋要拆散我们,让我们更加邪恶、更少彼此相爱。
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And that's the conspiracy we need to be fighting against.
这才是我们应当抵抗的阴谋。
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That's what we need to be resisting for our good, for our neighbor's good, and ultimately even for our salvation.
为了自己的益处,为了邻舍的益处,也为了我们的救恩,我们必须抵抗它。
2767.78-2770.03
For Shameless Potpourri, I'm Joe Heschmair.
这里是 Shameless Potpourri,我是 Joe Heschmeyer。
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God bless you.
愿神赐福你。